We have published our periodical chart pack of retailer performance vs market. See attached PDF.  This market share report provides two insights – 1) which retailers are winning and to what extent. 2) Insights about market structure.  If you would like any of the data in Excel at any point, just contact us.

Super Retail Group’s trading update shows a slight slowing in sales but bigger drop in gross margins. The pressure on gross margins is most acute in Supercheap Auto based on our feedback and could carry through to 1H26e.

Endeavour Group reported 3Q25 sales down 1.7%. The Retail division shrank further, while Hotels had a good quarter. The good news for the company and shareholders is the decline in retail sales should now be over. We forecast Retail comp growth of 2.1% for 4Q25e and 3.0% for FY26e. Hotels should see stronger growth, but investors should factor in an earnings dip associated with cashless gaming in Victoria from the end of 2025.

Woolworths improving 3Q25 sales trends suggest the disruptions from distribution centre strikes and public scrutiny are settling. We expect sales trends to remain near prevailing levels and the differential in growth between Coles and Woolworths will be small. Big W’s losses are accelerating and the retailer’s plans for improvement will be difficult to execute given the competitive backdrop. Losses could grow and an exit or sale of Big W is increasingly likely in our view.

Australian retail sales grew 3.2% in March 2025 year-on-year. March was impacted by the timing of Easter. Last year Easter Sunday fell on 31 March but was on 20 April in 2025. Impacts are varied by category depending on product and store closure effects. On an underlying basis, March growth looks strong for supermarket, department stores and recreational goods. Queensland sales were dragged down by Cyclone Alfred.

This is a chart pack from our webinar presentation following our April 2025 updated retail forecasts. The chart pack addresses the retail sales outlook, household income growth and savings. We also address the topical issues of US tariffs, the Australian dollar and wage rate growth. The presentation pack has a link to the webinar recording.

Bapcor’s strategic update sets a clear target for improved EBITDA margins of ~350bp over five years. While quantified drivers were not disclosed, in essence reducing business complexity and improving the calibre of people running the businesses should lead to better margins. Given the history as a roll-up, simplification of systems makes sense.  However, much of the margin improvement needs to come from Retail and Specialist Wholesale. There is a risk these businesses shrink to lift margins. We expect investors to wait for evidence of traction on margin improvement.

Coles reported overall sales growth of 3.4% for 3Q25. The solid result was driven by its online growth, which has mixed fortunes given the lower margins online. Liquor sales remain soft and there will be rebranding costs over the next 12 months dragging on profit margins. Declines in tobacco sales are also an earnings headwind. We lower our EPS slightly by -0.8% in FY25e and -1.1% in FY26e.

We have updated our forecasts for the Australian retail sales outlook. Despite significant global uncertainties created by US tariffs, Australian consumers have taken it in their stride. We forecast retail sales growth for 2025 of 3.4% (prev 3.6%). Our downgrade in growth is only for supermarkets and liquor with softer volumes and price inflation. Non-food retail has started the year strongly, particularly in household goods and online. The strength in retail sales is largely attributable to strong household income growth and the drivers of this elevated growth will be difficult to sustain given the magnitude of recent tax cuts and outsized population growth. A better backdrop would require consumers to save even less. We expect sales growth of 4% beyond 2025.

Australian inflation for the March 2025 quarter was 2.4% continuing a trend of decelerating inflation in the past year. Lower petrol prices and energy bill subsidies are helping. In retail, there was pick up in supermarket inflation, largely for meat and fresh produce. For non-food retail, there was deflation in a range of categories such as electronics, hardware, sporting goods and footwear, which may signal some margin pressure. With some input cost pressures and a lower Australian dollar, retail inflation is more likely to tick up from here. The trimmed mean inflation of 2.9% is instructive for the upcoming wage decision by the Fair Work Commission and may see retail wage rate growth of 3.3% to 3.7% for FY26e in our view.