Woolworths reported FY25 EBIT down 15%. While it was a rough year, the more concerning issue is that its rebound in FY26e has been tempered by guidance. The earnings recovery will be impacted by ongoing investment in its supply chain transformation and simplification. Woolworths sales trends are likely to accelerate beyond 1Q26e as price investment and execution improve and management disruptions settle down. We lower our EPS by 7.9% in FY26e and 9.6% in FY27e given higher one-off costs.

Inghams reported FY25 EBITDA pre AASB-16 of $236 million. While earnings were steady year-on- year on a 52-week basis, the fourth quarter deteriorated given excess poultry supply and lower prices. The oversupply arose because Inghams thought it could replace the lost Woolworths volumes. Oversupply will hurt Inghams’ 1H26e EBITDA but then should correct itself as production is reset. We expect pricing and margins to drop in 1H26e but then rise in 2H26e.

Accent Group reported FY25 EBIT of $110 million, in line with guidance and flat on the pcp. The trading update indicated LFL sales turned slightly positive on the 2H25 drop of 1.5%. The first Sports Direct store is due to open in November 2025. Guidance provided is for EBIT growth of high single digits, close to $120 million. We forecast $115 million EBIT for FY26e, growth of 4.5% with a view that competition will crimp gross margins.

GyG reported FY25 network sales growth of 23% and EBITDA at $65.1 million, up 46%. The company reported a step-down in comparable sales growth to 3.7% in the first seven weeks of 1Q26 vs 8.6% in 4Q25. The debate will be whether this lower growth persists and tempers expectations for margin expansion. While operating leverage may soften, the store rollout is skewed toward higher earning drive-thru sites and favourable moves in input costs will offset lower sales expectations in FY26e. The rebasing of comparable sales growth may be scrutinised, but even 4%-5% comp growth is still market leading.

Super Retail Group’s FY25 result revealed an encouraging reversal of fortunes in the second-half. While 1H25 EBIT fell 7%, 2H25 EBIT rose 9%. The better gross margin and lower cost growth in 2H25 are likely to support earnings in FY26e. While margins are better, sales trends remain volatile and we only forecast 2% EBIT growth in FY26e. There will be a drag from higher overhead costs. While margins are improving, the sales backdrop is unlikely to accelerate much making it difficult to accelerate earnings growth.

Breville reported 10.2% EBIT growth for FY25, with slightly weaker growth in 2H25. The key debate on this company is the magnitude and timing of the impact of US tariffs on its earnings. We expect the combination of tariffs with some offsetting cost savings to result in a slight lift in FY26e EBIT to $206 million. The tariff headwinds will continue into FY27e because of its inventory cycle and temper EBIT growth in that year as well. We forecast FY27e EBIT of $220 million. Beyond FY27e, the company should return to 7%-10% EBIT growth.

Ampol’s 1H25 earnings showed a small improvement in Convenience earnings, cost savings and a good exit run-rate for refining margins. We expect Ampol’s Convenience EBIT to rise in 2H25e despite another drop in fuel and tobacco volumes. The company’s 1H25 gearing was 2.8x, but gearing should reduce with lower capex and better margins over the next two years. The recently announced EG acquisition needs ACCC approval, which will be long-dated and there may be some contention around the number of sites to be divested given the geographic overlap.

We initiate coverage of a2 Milk with an Underweight rating and $8.00 target price. a2 Milk has shown a strong recovery in sales and profit margins following COVID-19 disruptions. The prospect for growth remains good over the next three years but it will increasingly be focused on China label infant formula, despite a soft industry backdrop. a2 Milk’s acquisition of the Pokeno facility and divestment of Mataura Valley Milk (MVM) will boost EBITDA margins with a 220bp uptick from the divestment of MVM and a further 130bp through the internalisation of production at Pokeno. We see EBITDA margins reaching 20% by FY30e. a2 Milk has good growth prospects, but the growth is narrowly focused on China infant formula sales, which has some risk.

Treasury Wines FY25 result highlighted the divergent performance across its divisions. Penfolds had 17% EBITS growth and still has a good runway for growth, while the Americas was carried by DAOU acquisition synergies. Americas underlying EBITS and Treasury Premium Brands both declined. The company clearly believes its shares are under-valued with a $200 million buyback confirmed. The more interesting debate that could build is whether Treasury will consider a break-up. We value Penfolds at $7.52 per share, providing an underpinning for valuation.

Ampol has announced the proposed acquisition of the 500-store EG petrol station network. The acquisition price of $1,050 million is at an EV/EBIT of 24.8x pre synergies, or 9.1x post synergies (pre AASB-16), which highlights the importance of the synergies in this deal. Given Ampol’s existing supply to EG and ability to accelerate the rollout of U-Go un-manned stations, the synergies look plausible. We lift our target price from $28.50 to $30.00 to reflect the EG deal noting that it could be 5%-6% EPS accretive by FY29e. The key unknown is ACCC approval.