Bapcor has provided yet another soft trading update, which results in lower EBITDA for FY27e. We reduce our EBITDA forecasts by 7%-10% over the next three years. Bapcor had shown signs of sales stabilisation but industry-wide delays in vehicle servicing have led to weaker sales from April 2026 and will continue until fuel prices subside.

dusk’s AfterGlow concept, follow the Glow and Glow 2.0 store concept. AfterGlow has been rolled out in six of the ~150 stores and accounts for 4% of the store network. dusk has reported average transaction value and units per customer for AfterGlow up double digits. dusk is also working on an AfterGlow “lite” refurbishment which has a lower capex outlay and takes just three days to fit which could accelerate the rollout.

Breville has navigated a turbulent six years given a COVID-19 boom in demand and bust along with the introduction of China tariffs by the US. We expect Breville to sustain close to 10% constant FX sales and EBIT growth over the next two years. The demand backdrop in the US remains strong and globally the coffee machine market has significant upside in household penetration. Even though competition in coffee machines is heating up, Breville’s premium position affords it some protection. We also see medium-term sales support from additional markets like China and the middle east.

Metcash’s FY26e trading update highlights slightly stronger second-half sales trends and better margin results in both Food and Liquor segments. While Hardware sales growth was stronger, margins declined. Metcash is managing the soft sales backdrop by cutting costs and tobacco headwinds should ease substantially in FY27e. The primary risks we see are the magnitude of the margin recovery in Hardware and the increasing likelihood of retail store ownership in Supermarkets.

Sigma’s trading update revealed a small, but notable improvement in sales trends and an entry into the UK through a joint venture. Improved sales trends will lift consensus EPS but the driver still appears to be GLP-1 drugs, resulting in margin dilution. The UK joint venture is small with five stores to be trialled in the Chemist Warehouse format in London.

Accent Group strategy day focused on long term growth targets for 2030 which are driven by the rollout of Sports Direct, cost out initiatives and an assumed improvement in like-for-like sales growth beyond FY27e. We are cautious on the ability to reach the longer term store count goals with more than a hundred stores in the current network under review. An improvement in like-for-like sales is predicated on the continued strength of performing brands and the recovery of brands that have been out of favour in recent years.

Temple & Webster’s trading update highlights a shift in focus from high sales growth to profitability. This pivot has driven a much weaker sales outcome. The strategy pivot may be temporary but along with a change in CEO creates uncertainty.

We have updated our store forecasts to correct for our store scrape analysis that had included clearance stores. Nick Scali presents stores on an ex-clearance store basis which were erroneously reflected in our previous report. Having corrected our store assumptions, we still see sales growth for the Nick Scali group driven by stores openings and the UK. The store growth opportunity for Nick Scali both domestically and internationally is attractive.

The Federal Budget for FY27e is positioned as reform and addressing inter-generational equity for taxpayers. However, the implications over the next 1-2 years on consumers and the retail sector is mild. We estimate less than 0.2% boost to household income over FY27e to FY29e, which pales into insignificance compared with the 1.8% boost to households from government spending in FY25. The changes to tax deductions on investment properties will take many years to shift housing churn and house prices given existing investors are grandfathered. The path of retail sales for the next three years will be more dependent on the interest rate outlook and employment growth. We expect a slowdown in retail sales to be most evident in the July-December 2026 period as income growth slows.

Sigma’s trading update revealed a small, but notable improvement in sales trends and an entry into the UK through a joint venture. Improved sales trends appear to be driven by GLP-1 drugs, resulting in margin dilution. The UK joint venture is small with five stores to be trialled in the Chemist Warehouse format in London. While Chemist Warehouse has impressive growth, expectations are high and the patience of company management may be higher than the patience of the market.