Endeavour Group reported 3Q25 sales down 1.7%. The Retail division shrank further, while Hotels had a good quarter. The good news for the company and shareholders is the decline in retail sales should now be over. We forecast Retail comp growth of 2.1% for 4Q25e and 3.0% for FY26e. Hotels should see stronger growth, but investors should factor in an earnings dip associated with cashless gaming in Victoria from the end of 2025.

Endeavour reported 1H25 EBIT down 10% with a poor result in the Retail segment the primary driver. Higher transition costs to its new systems, distribution centre strikes and weak liquor industry sales all contributed to the challenging half. However, these issues are transitory. We expect another soft result in 2H25e given One Endeavour costs and wage inflation. However, we can see an inflection point emerging. Earnings should recover as industry-wide sales improve and cost savings flow through.

Domino’s reported FY24 EBIT of $208 million, up 3%. Second-half growth was stronger at 13% driven by cost savings. Same store sales growth (SSSg) remains sluggish but there are some positive signs around franchisee profitability. We expect improving sales trends in 2H25e as Japan and France benefit from higher marketing spend and better profitability. Domino’s also reported an improvement in its gearing metrics in FY24 with a further improvement likely in FY25e. There are signs of improvement to franchisee profitability but remains a long runway to the target of $130k EBITDA per store.