Endeavour Group reported 3Q25 sales down 1.7%. The Retail division shrank further, while Hotels had a good quarter. The good news for the company and shareholders is the decline in retail sales should now be over. We forecast Retail comp growth of 2.1% for 4Q25e and 3.0% for FY26e. Hotels should see stronger growth, but investors should factor in an earnings dip associated with cashless gaming in Victoria from the end of 2025.

Australian retail sales rose 1.2% in April 2024. To adjust for the noise of the timing of Easter we also look at the combined March-April results which shows sales growth of only 1.3%. Department stores and fashion have had the most notable slowdown over the Easter trading period. Supermarket sales are also soft considering data suggests higher inflation in March-April. We forecast subdued retail sales growth trends to continue to June 2024, with a mild pick up for the back-half of calendar 2024.

Australian retail sales rose 1.3% in March 2024 (0.8% seasonally adjusted). Given the timing of Easter, judging the results is problematic. However, seasonally adjusted data and our own feedback reinforces the view that sales trends remain weak across March-April. Per capita retail volumes fell 2.3% in the March 2024 quarter. Additional category detail shows weakest underlying trends in electronics, furniture, recreational goods and clothing. We expect very weak trends to persist through to June 2024 with a mild pick up for the back-half of calendar 2024.

Coles reported 3Q24 comparable sales growth of 4.2% for its Supermarkets. It was a good quarter for Coles. However, we expect it is a peak in growth with some transitory factors and fading inflation leading us to forecast 2.5% comparable growth for 4Q24e. Liquor had a much weaker period and sales declines are likely to continue as the industry volumes reset lower and Coles unwinds some loss-leading sales.