The Myer strategy day gave a clearer view of the business in its current form and addressed many initiatives to drive improvement. Strategies previously outline are on track to be delivered in FY27e. There are several initiatives underway with no long-term targets provided yet. As Myer delivers on initiatives we expect to hear more on targets.

Super Retail Group’s trading update shows a slight slowing in sales but bigger drop in gross margins. The pressure on gross margins is most acute in Supercheap Auto based on our feedback and could carry through to 1H26e.

Endeavour Group reported 3Q25 sales down 1.7%. The Retail division shrank further, while Hotels had a good quarter. The good news for the company and shareholders is the decline in retail sales should now be over. We forecast Retail comp growth of 2.1% for 4Q25e and 3.0% for FY26e. Hotels should see stronger growth, but investors should factor in an earnings dip associated with cashless gaming in Victoria from the end of 2025.

The agreement with Frasers Group gives Accent Group a 25 year licence to operate Sports Direct in ANZ. Frasers Group will also increase its holding in Accent Group to 19.6% providing $60 million in funding for the initial phase of the rollout. With a 50 store within six years target, Sports Direct provides a new growth path with additional sourcing and product benefits for the group.

At a time when core footwear banners for Accent Group appear to be reaching maturity and competition is impacting margins, Frasers Group is looking to establish a physical presence via Sport Direct. Sports Direct creates the opportunity for further store growth with category expansion. With weakness in the core from a lower forecast store count and weaker gross margin, we lower our current earnings forecasts for Accent Group. We have increased the probability weighting to a Sports Direct entry to 90%.

Myer reported flat sales, but EBIT down 15% in 1H25. Sales were impacted by issues at the new National Distribution Centre (NDC) which shifted the sales mix to lower gross margin concession product. The trading update showed a flat start to the second-half. Earning will be largely driven by synergies and cost out initiatives over the next 2-3 years.

Endeavour reported 1H25 EBIT down 10% with a poor result in the Retail segment the primary driver. Higher transition costs to its new systems, distribution centre strikes and weak liquor industry sales all contributed to the challenging half. However, these issues are transitory. We expect another soft result in 2H25e given One Endeavour costs and wage inflation. However, we can see an inflection point emerging. Earnings should recover as industry-wide sales improve and cost savings flow through.

Lovisa reported 1H25 EBIT of $90 million, up 11%, slightly below consensus estimates of $92 million. With revenue growth stunted by flat comparable sales, gross margin was the standout, hitting a record 82.4% (up 170bp). The trading update signaled an improvement in trading momentum with LFL at 3.7% and the company is confident that the store rollout will reaccelerate. Cost growth gives us pause. Gross margins need to be maintained to offset cost growth if comparable sales don’t deliver, which is difficult with increasing competition. Given the lack of traction in Asia, we have removed the probability of an accelerated China rollout.

Accent Group reported 1H25 EBIT of $81 million, up 11%. The gross margin deterioration of 100bp owing to promotional intensity lead us to lower full year expectations. The nearing maturity in the store opportunities for Platypus and Skechers see us lowering our long term store forecasts by 4.5%. We incorporate an upside case in our valuation for a deal with Frasers Group.

Super Retail Group reported 1H25 sales up 4%, but EBIT down 7%. The typically resilient Supercheap Auto division had a 6% decline in EBIT. The increasingly competitive sales backdrop for Auto makes it challenging to see much earnings recovery over the next 18 months. Elevated competition will continue to be a headwind in Supercheap Auto and we expect flat like-for-like sales for 2H25e and FY26e. Elsewhere, sales trends are improving and mid single-digit sales growth is likely for Rebel, BCF and Macpac in 2H25e.