Endeavour Group’s 1Q27 trading update revealed Retail sales growth of 3.0% and Hotels growth of 1.9%. Whilst this is a continuation of above-market growth in Retail, both off-premise liquor and gaming industry growth have slowed. We are cautious about any material improvement in sales from here, given Endeavour is lapping its price reset. The downside to gross margins from softer gaming sales and promotions should play out by the end of FY27e as EBIT troughs.

Super Retail Group had a mixed trading update at its AGM. Sales trends are weak but the earnings outlook is resilient. Group LFL sales slowed from +1.5% in the first seven weeks of FY27e to -1.3% for the remaining six weeks. The sales swing was across all divisions and partly reflects economic conditions and also promotional activity that boosted sales in the early part of the year. Sales are likely to remain weak through to the end of 1H28e in our view. While sales are soft, Super Retail Group has gross margin gains through currency and labour cost savings to offset the sales pressure.

Ampol and Viva’s third quarter 2026 updates have led to consensus EPS downgrades near-term. Given the recent share price fall, dividends and valuation are more appealing. Moreover, relative to 2025 levels, the crack spread is likely to remain elevated well into 2027. As a result, Ampol and Viva will provide appealing dividend payouts over the next 12 months. Our dividend yield forecast on Ampol is 7.1% and Viva 10.7%.

Lovisa’s comparable sales growth for the start to FY27e of 3% puts it in the accelerating category of Australian listed retailers. Store closures increased in FY26 as management shut underperforming stores, a dynamic we expect to continue in FY27e. Nonetheless, Lovisa’s store rollout is a key driver of sales growth. Lovisa’s store network potential will see stores nearly double over the next decade with the potential to reach 3,000+ stores over time.

Now that reporting season is over for Australian retail, we have finalised the themes and issues observed during FY26. The strength of sales trends in FY26 has been met with weaker trading updates going into FY27e as the consumer faces a number of headwinds to end 2026 – interest rates hikes, falling house prices and higher petrol prices add risk to the retail outlook. The impacts are likely to be more significant in the 1H27e fiscal period and more painful in housing-related retail categories and takeaway food.

Lovisa reported FY26 EBIT of $158 million, up 14%. Sales grew 18% in FY26 with second half sales up 12%. Gross margin at 82.6% improved 60bp. We lower our sales forecasts on lower store numbers but improved comparable sales, with comp sales for the first eight weeks up 3%. We lift gross margin and lower costs. While there is a strong pipeline of store openings, the store network will need to be optimised further and competitive threats are increasing.

Super Retail Group reported a decline in FY26 EBIT of 3%, but gross margin improvement combined with tight cost control bodes well for EBIT growth in FY27e. We forecast EBIT growth of 6% for the year ahead, with higher gross margins the key driver. Rebel is improving its inventory and promotional management and the higher Australian dollar will lower the cost of goods. While we see an improvement in EBIT, the economic backdrop will be a headwind.

Viva reported a strong 1H26 EBITDA increase of 154%, which reflects much higher refining margins and the Liberty acquisition. The Convenience business may have slippage in 2H26e EBITDA given higher cost inflation and weaker retail fuel margins. The refining backdrop remains very supportive for 2H26e and even into FY27e.

dusk reported sales growth of 14% in 2H26 and full year growth of 8.4%. Gross margins improved 279bp in 2H26 driven by promotional discipline, currency benefits and improved logistics.

Accent Group reported EBIT of $83 million in line with guidance and Visible Alpha consensus. Like-for-like sales in the second half was down 2% and continued in the trading update for the first seven weeks of 1H27e. Gross margin improved in 2H26 on 1H26. We lower our sales forecasts but increased our gross margin expectations.