Australian retail sales rose 4.1% in November 2024. In non-food retail, sales were up 4.0%, while the CAGR growth over five years was 7.3%. November benefited from a bigger Black Friday event but also from warmer, drier weather. Supermarkets, liquor, fashion and cafes/restaurants all had much stronger growth. The sales trends have improved in recent months, which may be a little stronger than true trends because of favourable weather and the heavier discounts enticing shoppers. We expect some softness in the March 2025 quarter.

What we’re seeing and hearing in retail

• Black Friday sales strong: Anecdotal feedback is Black Friday was good. Growth of 4.0% for non-food may look a little light. However, Cyber Monday sales slip into December and the growth rates have been very strong for three consecutive years in November making it a high baseline.
• Weather patterns boosting sales: Both November and December 2024 have been warmer and drier across most of Australia, supporting sales.
• Our feedback on December 2024: Our feedback suggests a decent month. Retail sales could be up 3.5% to 4.0% with strong online sales and a late surge for categories from 20 December through to 27 December.

Sub-sector insights

• Supermarkets: Supermarket sales rose 3.7%, which is better than recent trends. Meat is now in inflation. Good weather has helped. While Coles has won the December quarter, Woolworths exited with good momentum.
• Liquor: Liquor sales rose 2.9% in November, which is well ahead of recent trends at -0.3%. Favourable weather has helped and continued into December. Dan Murphy’s and BWS under-performed given the DC strikes.
• Takeaway food and restaurant: Takeaway food rose 5.1% and café & restaurant sales were up 4.2%. Weather patterns helped sales. Takeaway food sales saw sharper pricing led by McDonalds.
• Pharmacy & cosmetics: Pharmacy & cosmetic sales increased 8.5% continuing the strong run throughout 2024. Pricing is supporting growth.
• Electronics: Electronics sales rose 3.4% in November. This is slightly ahead of recent trends and consistent with more positive comments from Harvey Norman.
• Hardware and furniture: Hardware sales were up 3.3% and furniture sales were only up 0.5%. The performance may reflect weather patterns.
• Recreational goods: Recreational goods sales rose 5.0%, similar to recent months. We have had good feedback on BCF, but softer feedback on Rebel.
• Department stores: Department store sales only rose 0.7%. This is somewhat surprising. Given Kmart represents close to 40% of this segment, it may indicate a slowdown. Wesfarmers said basket size was dropping.
• Fashion: Clothing sales rose 4.1% and footwear was up 2.8%. Both are stronger growth trends and had heavier promotions for Black Friday.
• Online retail: Online retail sales rose 6.5% in food and 7.4% in non-food. While a slowdown compared with October, the five-year CAGR is far stronger in November and Cyber Monday fell into December in 2024.

Australian retail sales long-term trends

Source: ABS, MST Marquee