Premier Investments reported 1H26 Retail EBIT (pre AASB-16 and excluding significant items) of $119 million, down 7.8%. Total sales were flat with gross margin of 66.9%, which fell 92bp. With Peter Alexander sales per store slowing and the UK in trial phase, a Smiggle turnaround will drive the earnings growth.

Peter Alexander is a high margin, cash generative business. However, we anticipate a sales deterioration and gross margin drop at Smiggle in FY26e, and think Smiggle will be breakeven, contributing little to our FY26e Premier Investments EBIT forecast. We have lowered our Smiggle store network forecasts, lifted operating costs but also raised gross margin expectation on favourable currency moves.

Premier Investments’ AGM trading update gave EBIT guidance for 1H26e of $120 million on a pre AASB-16 basis exclusive of significant items (UK losses for Peter Alexander). Visible Alpha consensus estimates appeared muddied by various factors causing uncertainty around earnings changes. Limited AGM detail provided suggests Peter Alexander continues to perform but sales and gross margins at Smiggle have continued to deteriorate.

Premier Investments reported FY25 Retail EBIT of $183 million, down 24%. FY25 sales performance was divergent for Peter Alexander and Smiggle with the same trend continuing it is trading update. We downgrade EPS by 3.4% and 4.5% in FY26e and FY27e given store closures and continued sales declines at Smiggle. We have also lowered our gross margin given commentary about a competitive market. Cost discipline remains a theme at Premier. Earnings growth will be delivered in FY26e but beyond that success will be determined by a recovery at Smiggle and the success of the Peter Alexander expansion to the UK.

Premier Retail reported 1H25 sales down 1% and EBIT fell 20%, including the impact of the Peter Alexander’s UK expansion. We forecast sales growth of 4.5% in 2H25e with a smaller gross margin decline. Cost growth will continue, leading to EBIT margins dropping by 778bp to 21.9% for FY25e. Premier Investments will continue to focus on improving Smiggle’s performance which is showing early signs of improvement.

Premier Investments’ trading update highlights negative operating leverage to soft sales trends.  Premier Retail expects sales to fall 2% with EBIT down 21% at the mid-point of guidance.  The surprise in this result is the inability to cut costs given weak sales. Perhaps there are fewer variable costs that can be cut without damaging sales.

Premier Investments and Myer today confirmed the proposal to merge Premier Apparel Brands and Myer. Premier shareholders will receive 7.2 Myer shares at a post synergies 13.0x PE valuation. Premier Investments retains high margin Peter Alexander and Smiggle and an investment in Breville.

Premier Investments reported FY24 Retail EBIT down 9% to $326 million. Gross margins finished higher with a second-half increase of 94bp. Cost management during FY24 helped offset the operational leverage of lower sales. The delayed strategic review allows the board to focus on the Myer merger proposal. 

Lovisa has extended its CEO contract for Victor Herrero to May 2025. John Cheston will be appointed as successor to take Lovisa at the start of FY26e. Mr Cheston comes from Premier Investments as Managing Director of Smiggle, overseeing its expansion into foreign markets over the last decade. With the change to CEO, we lower our Lovisa store rollout forecast in FY25 by 50 stores largely effecting the probability of an accelerated China rollout.

Premier Investments reported 1H24 Retail EBIT down 4.8% to $210 million. Gross margins were higher than expected and along with tight cost control, helped to offset the operational leverage of declining sales. We expect a similar outcome in 2H24e with sales only up 1% and elevated cost growth leading to lower EBIT. Little detail was provided on the strategic review with a potential split up of the business possible in 2025.