Wesfarmers reported EBIT growth of 7% in FY26. The company’s retail businesses had EBIT growth of 4%. Bunnings has so far shown resilient performance, but it is too early to see any downturn. Hardware sales are well correlated with mortgage refinancing, three months lagged. The downturn is imminent, around September 2026. We see same store sales slowing to 2% or so. Kmart will have low EBIT growth in FY27e as it upgrades its distribution centre. Wesfarmers will also have a step-up in interest costs of 17% in FY27e.

Wesfarmers 2026 strategy day had familiar messages about driving growth and productivity. What we found new was the emphasis about online marketplace growth, higher returns in Health and the confidence about its lithium expansion plan. We are cautious about slowing sales in Bunnings over the next 12 months.

Wesfarmers reported EBIT growth of 8% in 1H26. There was solid growth in its retail business and an outsized earnings improvement in lithium and associate income. The shape of the result raises debate about the likely operating leverage in Bunnings and Kmart, which we expect to be modest, especially as depreciation expenses normalise. We are also likely to see slowing sales trends on a 12-month horizon given weaker household income growth and fading price inflation. Wesfarmers will have solid EPS growth of 7% over FY26e and FY27e helped by higher lithium prices.

Wesfarmers reported EBIT growth of 8% in 1H26. There was solid growth in its retail business and an outsized earnings improvement in lithium and associate income. The shape of the result raises debate about the likely operating leverage in Bunnings and Kmart, which we expect to be modest, especially as depreciation expenses normalise. We are also likely to see slowing sales trends on a 12-month horizon given weaker household income growth and fading price inflation.

Wesfarmers reported FY25 EBIT of $4,186 million, growth of 5%. The result was helped by higher equity profits and lower depreciation, so EBITDA growth of 3% is a better proxy of the performance in the year. Bunnings, Kmart and Officeworks outlook for earnings growth is modest with limited margin expansion likely as depreciation rises and cost savings are largely offset by cost inflation. We expect WesCEF EBIT to fall 15% in FY26e given larger losses for lithium and lower ammonia prices.

Wesfarmers’ strategy sets an expectation for high-single digit earnings growth. However, the reality will still be some way off given growing losses in lithium. There is little room for any competitive risk to Bunnings or Kmart and a lot priced in for growth from these businesses that account for over 85% of enterprise value. Wesfarmers’ strategy continues to shift towards a focus on organic growth. There are opportunities in new product categories for Bunnings and Officeworks, retail media, online marketplaces and production expansion for WesCEF. The message around acquisitions was intriguing – plenty of desire, few viable options.

In the past two months, we’ve learnt that Catch is shutting down, while Amazon managed 33% revenue growth in Australia in 2024. The online market is consolidating and likely to do so further over the next five years. For now, Amazon’s growth is more so at the expense of other pure play retailers including eBay. However, given Amazon is taking close to one-third of all the growth in retail, eventually it will impact major ASX-listed companies. We remain cautious on impact for JB Hi-Fi, Wesfarmers and Harvey Norman. 

Amazon recently sent a letter to a number vendors on its first-party (1P) platform informing them they would move to third-party (3P). What’s the change and why?  Under 1P, Amazon takes the inventory and price risk. Under 3P, the vendor (brand owner) takes these risks. Australian retail profit margins are generally higher than five years ago with gross margins better than feared. In our view, a key reason is that online retailers are less aggressive on price. Amazon’s shift is a good example of the shift in mindset. We expect retailers to sustain higher gross margins. The problem is their sales growth may remain underwhelming relative to operating cost growth.