Woolworths has said that each of its businesses must “stand on its own two feet”. For Big W, perhaps it could be cut off at the knees at some point. While an exit is hard to execute, in some form, we expect it may occur over the next 18 months. For the retail industry it will be highly disruptive given the floor space needs to generate more sales and gross profit. A mix of other retailers could generate as much as $2.3 billion, or 50%, more in sales than the prevailing level.  While in the short-run, it may benefit a retailer like Kmart, the medium-term risk is all major retailers with geographic overlap lose some sales, namely Coles, Woolworths, Kmart and Target.

Harvey Norman reported 1H25 system sales growth of 4% and EBITDA up 4%. Sales trends have improved in absolute terms and relative to market in Australia. The company’s 1H25 result also indicates a better inventory position in Australia, which should support sales and profit margins. While all the key metrics look better for the company, its growth potential is still low in our view and increasingly based on offshore growth.

We have produced a chart pack of retailer performance vs market (see PDF report). This market share report provides two insights – 1) Performance of key ASX-listed retailers compared with market growth. 2) Market structure and individual retailer performance over time. The data includes actual six-monthly growth in industry sales to end of June 2024.

Harvey Norman reported FY24 EBITDA down 11% with a drop in Franchising and New Zealand earnings and increase in its property earnings. The company has lost market share in both Australia and New Zealand over the past five years and its EBITDA margin recovery is yet to emerge. We expect New Zealand to remain a headwind in FY25e but Australian earnings should rise slightly. The quality of the FY24 result was low with reduced lease amortisation supporting earnings.

Domino’s investor trip to Germany and France highlighted the role of online food aggregators is significant and partly explains the weakness in France and strength in Germany. Franchisee profitability can lift with higher order count which will be driven by product innovation and growth on the aggregators. While we are more positive, we have two notes of caution. Firstly, we expect the company to step back from the timelines for its long-term store growth and store growth may be 3%-5%, not 7%-9% per annum. Secondly, consensus expectations for sales growth and margin expansion need to be lowered over the next three years.

We have produced a chart pack of retailer performance vs market. This market share report provides two insights – 1) Performance of key ASX-listed retailers compared with market growth. 2) Market structure and individual retailer performance over time. The most interesting perspective about the data in the near-term is the recent sales performance for supermarkets, hardware, liquor, and electronics. The data includes actual six-monthly growth in industry sales to end of December 2023.

Costa Group has received an indicative acquisition proposal at $3.54 per share including potential dividends. Due diligence by Paine Schwartz, the potential acquirer, will conclude on 1 August. We see a 90% probability of a takeover proceeding. The indicative offer is 35% higher than where the shares were trading just prior to a news article speculating on a potential takeover and the multiple is well ahead of its average over the past three years. There is an argument that the margins are depressed, and past capital investment and acquisitions are yet to bear fruit (pun intended), but the company has inherent earnings volatility and there is an oversupply in blueberries and avocados keeping a lid on margins.

Harvey Norman provided an earnings guidance range for FY23e with the mid-point at $670 million profit before tax (pre revaluations and AASB-16). The guidance suggests 2H23e earnings have halved, which doesn’t bode well for FY24e. Harvey Norman’s earnings drop is likely to be more severe than rivals given its elevated inventory and franchising model. The company has also lost market share. We expect a trough in margins in FY24e with a partial recovery in FY25e.

Harvey Norman’s share price is trading below book value of $3.55 per share. In this report, we analyse its property value and Franchise margins. The company has over $3.7 billion in property and an enterprise value of $4.7 billion.  The last reported cap rate on its investment property was 5.4% in FY22. By FY24e, we see the cap rate rising to 7.5%. We expect its property value to drop by more than $800 million and Franchise margins to fall below 2019 levels.

Endeavour Group reported a modest lift in 3Q23 sales with improved sales in Retail still lagging the rate of inflation and the Hotel segment sales recovery driven by lower margin food and beverage sales. Endeavour should report earnings growth in FY23e, but growth may step down in FY24e as soft sales trends, weaker gaming sales and higher wage costs places pressure on profit margins.