Endeavour Group’s 3Q26 trading update revealed slower sales trends with an enticement of $100 million in cost savings in FY27e as a benefit. The reality is that sales trends are insufficient for cost savings to drop through to earnings. We expect Endeavour to continue gaining market share given First Choice could close, but a recovery in market growth is more important in our view, which may take time as retail liquor reverts to slight per capita volume declines.

Coles reported 3Q26 sales growth of 3.1%. While 3Q26 sales lagged its rival, Coles Supermarket track-record has been superior to rivals and the market over the past three years. Its Supermarket growth rate is likely to converge with Woolworths over the next nine months in our view. In Liquor, Coles rebranding has not delivered any earnings improvement and former First Choice stores could be shut down in our view. Coles looks to have enough flexibility to manage the fuel price and inflationary pressures near-term. The more important debate will be the ability of the two major supermarkets to ensure ongoing healthy rates of sales growth, which should occur as food inflation accelerates over the next year.

Amazon’s Australian 2025 results show an even larger increase in sales for last calendar year. We estimate its gross transaction value was $9.1 billion, an increase of 31%. Amazon accounted for over one-fifth of the non-food industry’s growth last year. Put differently, it detracts about one percentage point of growth from the rest of the non-food retail industry. Amazon continues to lift marketing spend and Prime subscriber numbers too. Amazon is a classic long-term structural challenge for retail, not an overnight disruption. It is likely to continue at its current pace for at least another three years given its supply chain capacity. The threat to incumbent retailers will remain a gradual squeeze, not a crush of profit margins.

Sigma reported 1H26 normalised revenue growth of 15% and EBIT growth of 19%. The sales result was strong but the modest operating leverage is a reminder of the inherently low gross margins in the business. Sales trends are strong but likely to slow from here. We expect LFL to remain double-digit in 2H26e, but then slip into single-digit territory for FY27e as the company laps higher growth and price inflation fades. Going forward, each 1% sales growth to translate into approximately 1.5% EBIT growth. Synergies will continue to help earnings over the next four years.

Harvey Norman reported 15% EBITDA growth in 1H26. Sales growth was solid in both the key markets of Australia and New Zealand and profit margins expanded with better cost control. Harvey Norman’s sales trends are likely to slow in Australia and NZ over the next 12 months, but we expect it to be a mild slowdown. The improved inventory position for franchisees bodes well for margin expansion in 2H26e.

We have published our periodical chart pack of retailer performance vs market. See attached PDF.  This market share report provides two insights – 1) which retailers are winning and to what extent. 2) Insights about market structure.  If you would like any of the data in Excel at any point, just contact us.

We transfer coverage of Temple & Webster from Scott Hudson to Garth Francis. In this report, we cover the company’s potential market share penetration, our forecasts for customer acquisition cost and possible category expansion.  Temple & Webster trades at an elevated multiple, reflective of the substantial growth opportunity. Any slowing in sales growth which may come from a competitive threat from industry incumbents or established retailers entering the category, could negatively impact the share price.

Sigma Warehouse reported its 1Q26 sales at its AGM. Chemist Warehouse like-for-like sales were up 14.7% for the quarter, an acceleration on FY25 trends. The company highlighted elevated sales of weight-loss drugs like Ozempic as a big contributor. We estimate the contribution is anywhere from 3%-5% of the LFL growth. We expect LFL sales to settle back at 11% in 2Q26e and 9.0% in 2H26e.

Sigma reported FY25 network sales growth for Chemist Warehouse of 14% and EBIT at $903 million, up 47%. The company reported a continuation of double-digit like-for-like sales growth with a lift in profit margins for the underlying Chemist Warehouse business. We forecast EBIT growth of 22% in FY26e ahead of revenue growth of 15%. Margins will be helped by penetration of Wagner private label, operating leverage from strong comp sales and the increasing synergies over the next four years.

Harvey Norman reported FY25 PBT growth of 9% with much stronger growth of 19% in 2H25. Sales trends are strong at the start of FY26e, which bodes well for the year ahead. However, the company was lapping a weak result from a year ago. We forecast FY26e comp sales growth of 4.5% for Australia and 6.0% for New Zealand. With better sales, what profit margin upside can we expect? Given Harvey Norman’s margins are near long-term average and cost growth may rise in FY26e, we expect the operating leverage to be a little lower than usual. PBT margins may rise 70bp. We forecast group network sales growth of 6% and PBT growth of 18% in FY26e.