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Retail Mosaic chart pack - FY24 retailer market share

Who's winning and losing in Australian retail

20 September 2024

We have produced a chart pack of retailer performance vs market (see PDF report). This market share report provides two insights – 1) Performance of key ASX-listed retailers compared with market growth. 2) Market structure and individual retailer performance over time. The data includes actual six-monthly growth in industry sales to end of June 2024.

Retail sales for July 2024

Online sales surge

02 September 2024

Australian retail sales rose 2.6% in July 2024 year-on-year. While overall sales trends remain weak, the standout was online, which was up 14.3% with strength in both food and non-food online. Amazon’s Prime Day has had spillover effects across the market. Hardware, Liquor and Takeaway Food were in decline in July. Pharmacy and furniture had good sales growth. We expect a gradual improvement in sales growth over the next six months led by non-food retail categories.

Retail sales for June 2024

Sales improving for some

02 August 2024

Australian retail sales rose 2.1% in June 2024 year-on-year. This continues recent weak trends, even though some of our feedback has been stronger over the past two months. The data does reveal smaller retailers are doing it tougher. There was a significant pick-up in fashion and department stores, modest pick-up in electronics with a slowdown in dining out and liquor. For FY24e, retail sales only rose 1.8%. We expect an acceleration to 2.9% for FY25e. The acceleration is likely to be modest given low household savings and dis-inflation for retail goods.

Retail sales for May 2024

Faint pulse emerging

03 July 2024

Australian retail sales rose 2.1% year-on-year in May 2024, which is the best underlying rate of growth since November 2023. The glass half-full would suggest we may be past the trough for retail. The glass half-empty is that the rate of growth is still very weak and indicative of per capita declines in retail volumes. We do think we are now past the trough in volumes, but we don’t expect a swift recovery in retail spending.

Retail Mosaic chart pack - Retailer market share

Who's winning and losing in Australian retail

09 February 2024

We have produced a chart pack of retailer performance vs market. This market share report provides two insights – 1) Performance of key ASX-listed retailers compared with market growth. 2) Market structure and individual retailer performance over time. The most interesting perspective about the data in the near-term is the recent sales performance for supermarkets, hardware, liquor, and electronics. The data includes actual six-monthly growth in industry sales to end of December 2023.

Metcash (MTS) 1H24 result analysis

Rising rates dent earnings

06 December 2023

Metcash reported a soft 1H24 result with sales up 1.3% and EBIT down 3.4%. The drop in EBIT was concentrated in the Hardware division and further margin pressure is likely given soft demand and rising operating costs. The Food segment has once again confounded sceptics by growing sales (ex tobacco) close to market growth and liquor is performing well. Metcash’s significant capex and acquisition outlays along with rising rates will lift finance costs over the next 18 months.

Coles (COL) 1Q24 sales insights

Slowdown triggers cost focus

27 October 2023

Coles reported 1Q24 sales growth of 4.7% from its Supermarket division and 1.8% for Liquor. While Coles results were weaker than Woolworths, underlying trends remain quite similar and the growth gap is likely to remain small. The challenge for Coles is that sales growth is likely to be below underlying cost growth, putting an emphasis on cost savings to protect margins.

Coles (COL) 3Q23 sales result

Sales trends to moderate

29 April 2023

Coles reported 3Q23 comparable sales growth of 6.5% in Supermarkets and 1.5% in Liquor. Sales trends have slowed in Supermarkets on an underlying basis and as inflation unwinds, comparable sales are likely to slip back to 4% by 4Q23e. We expect Coles Liquor to continue growing sales slower than market growth.

Coles 1Q23 result insights

A low point in sales growth

28 October 2022

Coles Group reported 1Q23 sales growth of 1.3%. This is a low rate of growth, but an aberration compared with likely growth over the remainder of FY23e. The first quarter was lapping lockdowns. We expect Coles Supermarket comp sales growth to recover to 5.9% in 2Q23e and Liquor should recover to be almost flat. All of the sales growth over coming quarters will be price inflation with some modest volume declines.

Endeavour Group (EDV) 1H22 result

Gross margin boosts earnings

22 February 2022

Endeavour Group reported 1H22 EBIT of $556 million, up 3%. The result was driven by gross margin gains in the Retail business. The company also did a good job in managing costs given the disruptions from COVID-19 during 1H22. We expect most of the gross margin gains seen in recent years to be retained, particularly given the growth of Pinnacle Drinks. However, we are cautious about the performance in FY23e. Overall, we forecast FY23e EBIT growth of 4%, which comprises a 9% fall for Retail and 37% EBIT growth in Hotels.

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