JB Hi-Fi’s 3Q23 trading update revealed only a modest slowdown in sales at JB Hi-Fi Australia, but a more notable slowdown in The Good Guys. JB Hi-Fi February and March comp sales fell 0.9% on our calculations and the Good Guys was down 5.7%. The distinction is largely a function of inflation trends shifting lower in appliances more so than consumer electronics. The downturn for JB Hi-Fi is proving orderly so far, but sales trends will slow further from here.

Woolworths reported an impressive 6.6% comparable sales growth in Australian Food in 3Q23. While Woolworths sales growth is good there are some challenges. Its superior growth is more a function of eCommerce and new stores, which has additional costs. Moreover, growth rates are likely to slow as food inflation fades over the next 12 months. We expect good earnings growth in FY23e, but growth is likely to slow next year.

Endeavour Group reported a modest lift in 3Q23 sales with improved sales in Retail still lagging the rate of inflation and the Hotel segment sales recovery driven by lower margin food and beverage sales. Endeavour should report earnings growth in FY23e, but growth may step down in FY24e as soft sales trends, weaker gaming sales and higher wage costs places pressure on profit margins.

Coles reported 3Q23 comparable sales growth of 6.5% in Supermarkets and 1.5% in Liquor. Sales trends have slowed in Supermarkets on an underlying basis and as inflation unwinds, comparable sales are likely to slip back to 4% by 4Q23e. We expect Coles Liquor to continue growing sales slower than market growth.