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Woolworths 1Q23 result insights

It gets better from here

05 November 2022

Woolworths reported 1Q23 sales growth of 1.8%. This low rate of growth simply reflects a high hurdle from lockdowns over the past two years. We expect sales growth to recover to 5%-6% from here and the growth gap to Coles will narrow. The market remains orderly around price inflation, which will support earnings growth. Moreover, the headwinds in NZ should ease soon and margins are likely to recover in calendar 2023.

Super Retail October trading update shows strong trends

Sales boom continues for now

31 October 2022

Super Retail Group’s trading update showed very strong sales for the first 16 weeks of FY23e. Sales are elevated given lockdowns dragged down sales last year. Even so, the three-year average growth rates are high single-digit at least, reflecting strong consumer demand and higher prices. We expect sales to slow from here and are therefore fundamentally cautious on the stock.

Coles 1Q23 result insights

A low point in sales growth

28 October 2022

Coles Group reported 1Q23 sales growth of 1.3%. This is a low rate of growth, but an aberration compared with likely growth over the remainder of FY23e. The first quarter was lapping lockdowns. We expect Coles Supermarket comp sales growth to recover to 5.9% in 2Q23e and Liquor should recover to be almost flat. All of the sales growth over coming quarters will be price inflation with some modest volume declines.

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