Australian retail sales rose 4.0% in April 2025 year-on-year. The March-April period has been distorted by the shift of timing of Easter over the past two years. Therefore, the combined March-April results are more relevant and show retail sales growth of 3.6%. The strongest areas are online, pharmacy, beauty and recreational goods. The weakest areas remain liquor, cafes & restaurants and department stores.

The Australian grocery industry has returned to sluggish growth with challenges in both top-line sales growth and bottom-line cost pressures.  This chart pack addresses the risks and opportunities ahead for the Australian grocery industry. The presentation has three sections. 1) Consumers have more money to spend but will remain budget-conscious. 2) Retailers are struggling to deliver sufficient growth. 3) Volumes are weak, so where are the opportunities?

We have published our periodical chart pack of retailer performance vs market. See attached PDF.  This market share report provides two insights – 1) which retailers are winning and to what extent. 2) Insights about market structure.  If you would like any of the data in Excel at any point, just contact us.

Australian retail sales grew 3.2% in March 2025 year-on-year. March was impacted by the timing of Easter. Last year Easter Sunday fell on 31 March but was on 20 April in 2025. Impacts are varied by category depending on product and store closure effects. On an underlying basis, March growth looks strong for supermarket, department stores and recreational goods. Queensland sales were dragged down by Cyclone Alfred.

Most retailers have highlighted how much tougher their NZ operations have been over the past year. The magnitude of the interest rate pain combined with lower levels of household savings has created a much tougher backdrop. However, conditions are improving and rate cuts have been significant with more to come. NZ retail sales should recover over 2025, more so in the second-half. We have pulled together a chart pack that provides a perspective on the NZ economic outlook, retail sales forecasts and financial performance of major retailers in that market. We include both ASX-listed retailers and NZ-centric retailers.

Australian retail sales rose 4.1% in January 2025 with decent signs of growth across most categories. Liquor is still lagging, while hardware and electronics were softer than recent months. Pharmacy and recreational goods were the standout segments. We expect retail category and company divergence to rise over the next six months. Overall sales trends are likely to bounce around the 3%-4% mark, which is satisfactory growth, but still a challenge relative to cost growth.

Australian retail sales rose 4.0% in December 2024, with some notable outliers across segments. Electronics was up 11%, furniture up 8% and pharmacy up 7%. On the other hand, department stores, supermarkets, liquor and recreational goods were all very soft. Some of the shifts reflect the baseline with December compound annual growth rates actually slower than November for all categories other than hardware and liquor.

Australian retail sales rose 4.1% in November 2024. In non-food retail, sales were up 4.0%, while the CAGR growth over five years was 7.3%. November benefited from a bigger Black Friday event but also from warmer, drier weather. Supermarkets, liquor, fashion and cafes/restaurants all had much stronger growth. The sales trends have improved in recent months, which may be a little stronger than true trends because of favourable weather and the heavier discounts enticing shoppers. We expect some softness in the March 2025 quarter.

We have produced a chart pack showing the growth trends for online retail in Australia. It is in double-digit growth again after a pause in the 2023 calendar year. The growth is strongest for those with the biggest presence online – supermarkets, Amazon, Temu and Shein are all growing rapidly. While online is growing fast, it is happening with a stronger emphasis on profitability than five years ago. We expect retailers with a stronger online presence to have faster sales growth. However, the medium-term risk remains margin dilution for incumbent bricks & mortar retailers as the online sales may not be incremental.

Australian retail sales rose 3.8% year-on-year in October 2024. It was a strong month for non-food retail up 5.1%, which is above long-term trends. It is uncommon for non-food to outperform, but the combination of good household income growth and a softer September has brought out shoppers. Pharmacy, cosmetics, recreational goods and online were the strongest growing categories. Our feedback on Black Friday sales suggests November will show solid growth too. We may see some weakness in December as promotional fatigue sets in.