Australian retail sales grew 3.2% in March 2025 year-on-year. March was impacted by the timing of Easter. Last year Easter Sunday fell on 31 March but was on 20 April in 2025. Impacts are varied by category depending on product and store closure effects. On an underlying basis, March growth looks strong for supermarket, department stores and recreational goods. Queensland sales were dragged down by Cyclone Alfred.

The upcoming 3Q25e sales results for Coles, Woolworths and Endeavour Group are likely to show Coles in front in both supermarkets and liquor. The shift of Easter timing will distort growth rates. We forecast Coles Supermarket comparable sales at 3.0% and Woolworths at 2.6%. For Coles Liquor, we forecast 2.6% and Endeavour Retail at -0.3%. All figures are Easter-adjusted. We will be interested in any step change in inflation for produce and meat given recent weather disruptions. Overall industry sales growth rates remain lacklustre, particularly relative to cost growth