Australian retail sales only rose 3.1% in August 2025, a slowdown from the 5% trendline seen in the previous three months. The slowdown was broad-based, albeit café & restaurant spending remained strong at 6.4% growth. While the slowdown may raise some concern, we see the sustainable trend level around 4% growth and hence a softer month for August and September is likely. Consumers are bound to wait till Black Friday to spend up again.

Noumi reported total sales of $595 million, up 1.0% (vs MSTe +0.6%). While the Plant-based Milk division sales grew 2.5%, the Dairy and Nutritionals division sales were flat. The Plant-based Milk division sales were led by the performance of the Milklab branded product which grew 6.7% in the year, with strong sales growth in the retail channel.

New Zealand has been a challenging retail market for most companies over the past 18 months. However, there are clear signs retail sales are likely to improve. Rate cuts of 250bp that began in August 2024 are starting to boost incomes and recent sales trends have been stronger. We expect NZ retail spending to rebound to 3.6% growth in FY26e, up from 0.6% growth in FY25. The three retailers with the largest sales exposure and upside to better NZ sales trends are Ampol, Harvey Norman and Bapcor.  NZ could account for 2%-3.5% in operating profit growth for these companies.

The link provides a presentation associated with a webinar we held. The webinar addressed our retail sales forecasts for FY26e. The outlook remains constructive for retail spending in FY26e, interest rates are falling and tax cuts are providing stimulus for households, but population growth is slowing and income growth may not rise further from here. We assessed the willingness of consumers to dip into savings to drive retail spending higher.  

We initiate coverage on Noumi, an Australian fast-moving consumer goods company specializing in the production, marketing, and distribution of dairy and plant-based beverages, nutritional products, and functional ingredients. Noumi has state-of-the-art facilities for the production of UHT and plant-based milk products with capacity to service export market growth opportunities. There is upside potential from new product development and improved yield efficiency.

Australian retail sales rose 4.1% in May 2025 year-on-year. This is an acceleration on the combined March-April growth of 3.6%. Foot traffic data for May reported growth of 8%. Pharmacy, beauty, recreational goods and online were strongest in May. Weaker categories were liquor, cafes & restaurants and furniture, albeit all were positive in the period.

Australian retail sales rose 4.0% in April 2025 year-on-year. The March-April period has been distorted by the shift of timing of Easter over the past two years. Therefore, the combined March-April results are more relevant and show retail sales growth of 3.6%. The strongest areas are online, pharmacy, beauty and recreational goods. The weakest areas remain liquor, cafes & restaurants and department stores.

The Australian grocery industry has returned to sluggish growth with challenges in both top-line sales growth and bottom-line cost pressures.  This chart pack addresses the risks and opportunities ahead for the Australian grocery industry. The presentation has three sections. 1) Consumers have more money to spend but will remain budget-conscious. 2) Retailers are struggling to deliver sufficient growth. 3) Volumes are weak, so where are the opportunities?

We have published our periodical chart pack of retailer performance vs market. See attached PDF.  This market share report provides two insights – 1) which retailers are winning and to what extent. 2) Insights about market structure.  If you would like any of the data in Excel at any point, just contact us.

Australian retail sales grew 3.2% in March 2025 year-on-year. March was impacted by the timing of Easter. Last year Easter Sunday fell on 31 March but was on 20 April in 2025. Impacts are varied by category depending on product and store closure effects. On an underlying basis, March growth looks strong for supermarket, department stores and recreational goods. Queensland sales were dragged down by Cyclone Alfred.