This chart pack provides subscribers with insights about the retail operating environment and outlook for sales, gross margins and operating leverage. The chart pack has been compiled post the FY25 reporting season across the retail market providing fresh insights about the sector.

Australian retail sales rose 4.1% in May 2025 year-on-year. This is an acceleration on the combined March-April growth of 3.6%. Foot traffic data for May reported growth of 8%. Pharmacy, beauty, recreational goods and online were strongest in May. Weaker categories were liquor, cafes & restaurants and furniture, albeit all were positive in the period.

Super Retail Group reported 1H25 sales up 4%, but EBIT down 7%. The typically resilient Supercheap Auto division had a 6% decline in EBIT. The increasingly competitive sales backdrop for Auto makes it challenging to see much earnings recovery over the next 18 months. Elevated competition will continue to be a headwind in Supercheap Auto and we expect flat like-for-like sales for 2H25e and FY26e. Elsewhere, sales trends are improving and mid single-digit sales growth is likely for Rebel, BCF and Macpac in 2H25e.