Accent Group strategy day focused on long term growth targets for 2030 which are driven by the rollout of Sports Direct, cost out initiatives and an assumed improvement in like-for-like sales growth beyond FY27e. We are cautious on the ability to reach the longer term store count goals with more than a hundred stores in the current network under review. An improvement in like-for-like sales is predicated on the continued strength of performing brands and the recovery of brands that have been out of favour in recent years.

Feedback on footwear category sales indicates soft trading conditions continue, making it one of the weakest retail categories. Analysis of Accent Group’s promotional discounting shows consistently deeper discounts since its AGM. We lower our sales expectations but lift our gross margin forecasts because the discounting has not deteriorated.

Australian retail sales rose 6.2% in October 2025 year-on-year, a surprise given our feedback of modest spending in October in what felt like anticipation of Black Friday deals. The theme of a strong consumer continued from the National Accounts update for the September quarter in which household income was revised higher. Higher house prices and improved savings rates are buffering the consumer with sentiment trending higher.

Australian retail sales rose 4.7% in September 2025 year-on-year, an improvement on August 2025 trends. Growth was stronger across all retail categories. While the RBA has paused on further rate cuts, house price growth looks to be accelerating, which is supportive of better retail sales growth. It should be a decent Christmas for most retailers, just watch for the levels of discounting.

Australian retail sales only rose 3.1% in August 2025, a slowdown from the 5% trendline seen in the previous three months. The slowdown was broad-based, albeit café & restaurant spending remained strong at 6.4% growth. While the slowdown may raise some concern, we see the sustainable trend level around 4% growth and hence a softer month for August and September is likely. Consumers are bound to wait till Black Friday to spend up again.

The latest household spending indicator (replaces Retail Sales series) showed retail sales growth of 4.8% for July 2025, up from 3.8% in June 2025. The strongest growth was in “other” retailing, which includes online pure-play, pharmacy and recreational goods. Department stores had a surprisingly strong result and household goods was solid too. We expect growth rates to hover close to 4% over the remainder of 2025.

Accent Group reported FY25 EBIT of $110 million, in line with guidance and flat on the pcp. The trading update indicated LFL sales turned slightly positive on the 2H25 drop of 1.5%. The first Sports Direct store is due to open in November 2025. Guidance provided is for EBIT growth of high single digits, close to $120 million. We forecast $115 million EBIT for FY26e, growth of 4.5% with a view that competition will crimp gross margins.

Australian retail sales finished fiscal 2025 with 4.6% growth for June 2025, the strongest growth in over two years. The standouts were online, recreational goods, pharmacy, cosmetics and electronics. Liquor, cafes & restaurants and supermarkets were all laggards. The strong finish to the year partly reflects end of financial year sales. Retail spending for FY25e was up 3.3% and we see 3.9% growth for FY26e.

Australian retail sales rose 4.1% in May 2025 year-on-year. This is an acceleration on the combined March-April growth of 3.6%. Foot traffic data for May reported growth of 8%. Pharmacy, beauty, recreational goods and online were strongest in May. Weaker categories were liquor, cafes & restaurants and furniture, albeit all were positive in the period.

Accent Group’s trading update showed deteriorating sales trends, with comparable sales turning negative since March 2025. As a result, 2H25e EBIT will be down 23%. We expect sales growth to be below cost growth again in FY26e resulting in EBIT of $102 million, down 7%. The concern is Skechers is mature and Platypus may decline. With issues in portions of the core business, execution risk is elevated. Positive comp sales are essential in a high cost growth environment and will need to recover to offset the growth in wages and rents.