Australian retail sales rose 5.5% in January 2026, a slight softening on recent trends, but still highlighting a strong consumer. Café, takeaway and restaurant sales rose 9.3%, clothing and footwear was up 6.5%. Once again supermarkets and liquor were the laggard at 3.5% growth. The reality is that sales growth momentum is likely to slow, but the January 2026 update is a reminder that the slowdown is likely to be gradual over the next six months.

Australian retail sales rose 6.2% in October 2025 year-on-year, a surprise given our feedback of modest spending in October in what felt like anticipation of Black Friday deals. The theme of a strong consumer continued from the National Accounts update for the September quarter in which household income was revised higher. Higher house prices and improved savings rates are buffering the consumer with sentiment trending higher.

Australian retail sales rose 4.7% in September 2025 year-on-year, an improvement on August 2025 trends. Growth was stronger across all retail categories. While the RBA has paused on further rate cuts, house price growth looks to be accelerating, which is supportive of better retail sales growth. It should be a decent Christmas for most retailers, just watch for the levels of discounting.

Australian retail sales only rose 3.1% in August 2025, a slowdown from the 5% trendline seen in the previous three months. The slowdown was broad-based, albeit café & restaurant spending remained strong at 6.4% growth. While the slowdown may raise some concern, we see the sustainable trend level around 4% growth and hence a softer month for August and September is likely. Consumers are bound to wait till Black Friday to spend up again.

The latest household spending indicator (replaces Retail Sales series) showed retail sales growth of 4.8% for July 2025, up from 3.8% in June 2025. The strongest growth was in “other” retailing, which includes online pure-play, pharmacy and recreational goods. Department stores had a surprisingly strong result and household goods was solid too. We expect growth rates to hover close to 4% over the remainder of 2025.

Australian retail sales finished fiscal 2025 with 4.6% growth for June 2025, the strongest growth in over two years. The standouts were online, recreational goods, pharmacy, cosmetics and electronics. Liquor, cafes & restaurants and supermarkets were all laggards. The strong finish to the year partly reflects end of financial year sales. Retail spending for FY25e was up 3.3% and we see 3.9% growth for FY26e.

Australian retail sales rose 3.6% in February 2025 year-on-year adjusted for the leap year in 2024. The growth rate near 4% has been largely consistent for the past 5 months. Most drivers of spending are becoming more favourable – tax cuts, rate cuts and lower cost of living pressures, which influences our view that retail spending will continue near 4% over 2025.