Woolworths has good sales momentum, which has led to a higher PE ratio. The chances of surprisingly strong sales momentum in Woolworths trading update is high given the success of the Ooshies collectables campaign. We may see sales growth of 7%+. However, such programs have no discernible ongoing benefit to sales. As a result, Woolworths sales trends are peaking and are likely to slow through FY27e.

Domino’s provided a trading update that shows steady profits and improved franchisee profitability for FY26e. The missing link was that sales trends deteriorated and more stores will be closed. We expect same store sales to decline 1.1% in FY27e, on top of the 4.1% fall in FY26. While store closures and cost savings will help EBIT, cost inflation and declining sales largely offset.

Frasers Group has announced a full takeover offer for Accent Group with no premium at A$0.65. Frasers Group has used the strategy in the past, building up a stake and launching an opportunistic bid with varying success. The offer represents a 3.3x EV/EBITDA multiple (FY26e). Frasers may lift the bid but has exercised patience in the past. The board will say that the offer undervalues the company, holding out for an improved offer in our view. We weight three scenarios at an equal chance of occurring: a full takeover going ahead at a premium to the current offer, a status quo scenario and a Sports Direct agreement termination.

dusk’s AfterGlow concept, follow the Glow and Glow 2.0 store concept. AfterGlow has been rolled out in six of the ~150 stores and accounts for 4% of the store network. dusk has reported average transaction value and units per customer for AfterGlow up double digits. dusk is also working on an AfterGlow “lite” refurbishment which has a lower capex outlay and takes just three days to fit which could accelerate the rollout.

Metcash’s FY26e trading update highlights slightly stronger second-half sales trends and better margin results in both Food and Liquor segments. While Hardware sales growth was stronger, margins declined. Metcash is managing the soft sales backdrop by cutting costs and tobacco headwinds should ease substantially in FY27e. The primary risks we see are the magnitude of the margin recovery in Hardware and the increasing likelihood of retail store ownership in Supermarkets.

Now that reporting season is over for Australian retail, we have finalised the themes and issues observed during 1H26. This is important context as there are now quite a few body blows facing the consumer – higher interest rates and higher petrol prices clearly add risk to the retail outlook. The impacts are likely to be more significant in the 1H27e fiscal period and more painful in housing-related retail categories and takeaway food.

Over the long-term, JB Hi-Fi Australia has delivered close to 5% comparable sales growth. The company’s ability to alter its product range as well as drive more premium products has been a hallmark of its success. The company now faces a tougher demand backdrop given price inflation in some key categories combined with deflation in others from a higher Australian dollar. What does it all mean? Volumes for electronics will slow given the retail cycle is slowing as well as the consumer response to higher prices. Even so, the company should deliver sales growth. We see comp sales troughing at 2.7% in FY27e with a return towards 3% beyond FY27e.

Domino’s reported network sales down 2% and EBIT up 1% in 1H26.  The company is pursuing cost savings and lower discounting aggressively. However, so far the drop in same store sales seems larger than the gross margin gain for franchisees. We expect SSSg to decline in FY26e and return to very modest growth in FY27e as the company focuses more on gross margins. A good portion of targeted cost savings will be passed onto franchisees. Even so they account for less than half the required lift in franchisee EBITDA. Domino’s is taking decisive action to restore profitability but we expect the stock to be range bound until the new CEO starts by August 2026.

Harvey Norman reported 15% EBITDA growth in 1H26. Sales growth was solid in both the key markets of Australia and New Zealand and profit margins expanded with better cost control. Harvey Norman’s sales trends are likely to slow in Australia and NZ over the next 12 months, but we expect it to be a mild slowdown. The improved inventory position for franchisees bodes well for margin expansion in 2H26e.

Super Retail Group reported 1H26 EBIT down 3%. The weaker result reflected elevated promotions in Rebel and weak sales in BCF. These issues should pass as Rebel’s inventory levels are lean and BCF has already seen an improvement in sales trends. We are positive on earnings outlook over the next two years helped by improving gross margins. Super Retail may see a 70bp gain from the higher Australian dollar. Super Retail Group have arranged an investor day on the 11th June 2026.