JB Hi-Fi reported 1H26 EBIT up 8%. The drivers of the result were good sales growth and a slight tick-up in gross margins with higher operating cost growth. The company’s sales update for January 2026 highlighted a slowdown in momentum, which is likely to play out in calendar 2026. We expect comparable sales growth of closer to 3% for JB Hi-Fi Australia and The Good Guys over the next 18 months. In particular, JB Hi-Fi Australia has a high hurdle in the June 2026 quarter. Even though sales are slowing, the ability to extract margin support from suppliers is strong and there is flexibility in the staff cost base.

Feedback on footwear category sales indicates soft trading conditions continue, making it one of the weakest retail categories. Analysis of Accent Group’s promotional discounting shows consistently deeper discounts since its AGM. We lower our sales expectations but lift our gross margin forecasts because the discounting has not deteriorated.

Metcash reported a 2% drop in EBIT for 1H26. The company’s sales trends are likely to soften a little from here, particularly as it laps Woolworths DC strikes and the Black Friday boost to Total Tools dissipates. The swing factor for Metcash is its corporate hardware stores that need a meaningful upswing in the residential construction cycle. Profit margins are depressed and should recover. The combination of optionality around hardware upside, contract wins in convenience and a good dividend yield give us reason to be positive.

Domino’s remains a topical stock with debates about its appeal as a takeover target and also as a cost out opportunity. In our view, these two debates need to accompany a discussion about its weak sales growth and poor franchisee profitability. Without an acceleration in same store sales, cost savings will be difficult to bank for shareholders. If franchisee profitability does not improve, there is a risk there will be more store closures globally.

Woolworths reported 1Q26 sales growth of 2.7% overall and 1.6% comparable sales growth in its Australian Food segment. The weak sales trend has led Woolworths to increase its promotions, inventory and staffing investment to help stabilise its market share. Sales trends are likely to improve but it will dent profit margins. We forecast Australian Food EBIT growth of 5% for FY26e at the low end of the company’s guidance range. Woolworths’ valuation is appealing but its sales and margin recovery will be gradual and is not without risk.

dusk reported FY25 sales of $137 million, up 8.7%. Like-for-like (LFL) sales growth of 7.1% meant a 2H25 LFL sales growth of 3.6%. The trading update for the first eight weeks saw total sales down 1.5%, cycling 16% growth in same period last year. We reference the two-year stack in our forecast for LFL sales growth of 4.2% for FY26e. With limited store openings and growth in LFL sales we forecast FY26e revenue forecasts of $144 million, up 4.9%.

Metcash’s 18-week AGM trading update highlighted a slowdown in sales. For the first 7 weeks, group sales were up 4.7% and the next 11 weeks, to the end of August 2025, sales dropped 1.2%. The biggest contributors to the slowdown were declining tobacco sales (-34%) and annualising Superior Foods acquisition (now trending at 2.7% growth). Metcash’s underlying results show sales trends slightly lower than industry growth other than liquor. Hardware sales trends remain sluggish, albeit improving over recent months.

Harvey Norman reported FY25 PBT growth of 9% with much stronger growth of 19% in 2H25. Sales trends are strong at the start of FY26e, which bodes well for the year ahead. However, the company was lapping a weak result from a year ago. We forecast FY26e comp sales growth of 4.5% for Australia and 6.0% for New Zealand. With better sales, what profit margin upside can we expect? Given Harvey Norman’s margins are near long-term average and cost growth may rise in FY26e, we expect the operating leverage to be a little lower than usual. PBT margins may rise 70bp. We forecast group network sales growth of 6% and PBT growth of 18% in FY26e.

Domino’s reported FY25 EBIT of $198 million, down 5%. The result showed very weak sales trends across all geographies and EBIT margin declines for Asia are a concern given the significant store closures should have improved profitability.  Franchisee profitability is flat and well below healthy levels, raising the risk of more store closures. The decision to reduce discounting is dangerous in our view as the margin uplift may be wiped out by lower transaction volumes.

Woolworths reported FY25 EBIT down 15%. While it was a rough year, the more concerning issue is that its rebound in FY26e has been tempered by guidance. The earnings recovery will be impacted by ongoing investment in its supply chain transformation and simplification. Woolworths sales trends are likely to accelerate beyond 1Q26e as price investment and execution improve and management disruptions settle down. We lower our EPS by 7.9% in FY26e and 9.6% in FY27e given higher one-off costs.