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Metcash (MTS) - Trading update for 1H25e

The leverage in retail exposure

06 November 2024

Metcash provided a trading update indicating 1H25e underlying NPAT will be between $132-$135 million. The key driver has been the decline in sales and negative operating leverage in Metcash’s IHG hardware stores. Tough conditions are likely to prevail in 2H25e as well, albeit we are at a low point in the building cycle, providing scope for margin recovery at some point.

Metcash (MTS) - FY24 result insights

Challenging markets

28 June 2024

Metcash reported FY24 EBIT down 1% and, adjusted for acquisitions, it was a similar result in both the first and second-half. The company is actively managing costs to offset weak sales trends and this thematic is likely to be a feature again in FY25e. Metcash’s performance relative to market growth remains impressive and is the primary reason for our positive stance on the stock.

Australian Supermarkets - Kicking the cigarette habit

The impact on supermarkets of falling tobacco sales

23 June 2023

Tobacco may be somewhat inconspicuous in supermarkets but it has a meaningful impact on sales and margin outcomes given demand has dropped significantly in the past year. Metcash faces the biggest headwind given tobacco could account for 15% of group sales. The drop in tobacco is partly driven by the rise of illicit tobacco and vaping.

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