Australia’s national accounts reveals that income growth remains strong and consumers are spending more money outside of retail. For the March 2024 quarter, household income rose 5.1% and total consumer spending was up 5.9%, whereas retail spending only rose 2.5%. Households are saving very little of their income, a reflection of stored up savings from the past four years, but also a reminder that consumers will be more value conscious. We expect similar trends to constrain a retail recovery in FY25e as households allocate spending elsewhere and lower retail price inflation dampens overall revenue.

The link provides a presentation associated with a webinar we held. The webinar addressed the updated outlook for retail sales and key drivers that could trigger an improvement in spending. In the presentation, we also address the outlook for interest rates, price inflation and population growth. While tax cuts will help sales later in 2024, lower retail price inflation, higher unemployment and a shift of spend to travel and automobiles will all limit the upside in industry sales growth. The presentation also includes insights about retailer profitability, inventory levels, and sales trajectory following results from the 6 months to December 2023.

We have updated our retail sales outlook, with modestly higher forecasts for 2024. We forecast 2.7% growth (up from 2.5% previously). We have lifted our non-food forecasts, but lowered food & liquor forecasts. The prevailing sales trends are very soft but should improve in the back-half of calendar 2024 as income tax cuts flow through. We only see a modest pick up because lower retail price inflation will constrain overall sales growth in FY25e.

Australia’s national accounts highlights an improvement in income growth as the headwinds from higher interest rates and taxes eases back. For the December 2023 quarter, household income rose 4.3% and spending was also up 4.3%. We are seeing a gradual drop in the share retail has of total spending and has further to go in our view given outsized spending over the past four years.

Australian retail has had a difficult 2023 with below trend sales growth of 3.1%. We expect another challenging year with growth of 2.5% for 2024. While a weaker year, it will be a tale of two halves with softer growth in the January-June period and better growth for July-December. Moreover, we expect slowing sales in at-home food & liquor and a sharper slowdown in cafes, restaurants and takeaway food. We expect an improving rate of growth for non-food retail. While tax cuts will help sales later in 2024, lower retail price inflation, higher unemployment and a shift of spend to travel will all limit the upside in industry sales growth.

Australians saved a lot of money during COVID-19. They saved $246 billion more than usual in fact. Bank data shows that households have now started drawing on that savings buffer. Is this good news or bad news? Do all demographics have savings buffers? We use demographic data to answer these questions and find that all income groups (lowest to highest) have some buffers. Amongst age cohorts, the groups aged 25 or older have saved more. Younger people have few buffers. The excess savings will result in a gradual slowdown in retail spending, potentially milder than many fear. The impact of higher interest rates will hurt higher income households the most as they carry more debt relative to income. Those over 65 are net beneficiaries of higher rates. Given data on spending by demographics, liquor and food at-home are likely to outperform. Dining out and travel may suffer when higher income earners pull back on spending.

Australian retailers have begun to experience a slowdown in retail spending and it’s going to get tougher over the next 4-6 months. We expect FY24e retail industry sales to rise 1.5%, a slowdown from 9.0% growth in FY23e. While this may sound gloomy, a glass half full perspective is overall sales may not slow any further from the trends as at June 2023. The glass half-empty view is that we may not return towards trend sales growth until 2025. The willingness of households to tap into excess savings shapes our view that the downturn will be shallow. We also note that food inflation will prop up that sector until early 2024. The path of price inflation is likely to have a greater bearing on sales outcomes more so than retail volumes, which are already in decline.

Australia’s national accounts for the March quarter provides a clear narrative about the state of the consumer in 2023. Wages growth is very strong and even though interest rates are starting to bite, households are still spending. They have lowered their savings and switched spending to travel and recreation. The retail downturn thus far is only partly attributable to higher interest rates. The combination of a continued switch in spend outside of retail and higher interest rates mean the downturn will become more acute over the next six months. We may not see a return to trend growth in retail until 2025.

The Australian national accounts for the December 2022 quarter foreshadow the dynamic that will play out in 2023. Wages growth is strong, but disposable income is weak. Consumers are also switching back to more normal spending habits with strong recovery in recreation. So far retail has not felt the effects, but under the surface there is already weakness. Retail sales growth of 9% year on year in the December quarter was largely a function of price. As we move into 2023, the fade in retail inflation contribute meaningfully to weaker sales growth. While savings rates are now below 2019 levels, the stored up savings from the last two years are still yet to be spent. For more, please see our report Retail forecasts for 2023 – Brace for Impact, January 2023.

Australian households may have a lot of debt, but they also have a lot of money sitting in bank deposit accounts. We keep a close eye on banking regulator data that discloses household deposits. At 31 December 2022, the total balance of household deposits was $1.39 trillion. It’s an impressive figure and equates to $125,000 per household, on average. On our analysis, deposits are about $16,000 per household higher than the trend line would suggest, which reflects the majority of the excess savings built up during lockdowns. More cash in the bank is supporting consumer spending and one of the reasons there is a disconnect between sentiment and spending in our view. For more on the disconnect between sentiment and spending, see this report, What correlates with retail sales? The disconnect between sentiment and spending