Australian inflation was 3.8% for the June 2024 quarter and retail product inflation was 2.1%. The more granular data shows that a number of retail categories are in deflation such as furniture, electronics and sporting goods. In supermarkets, packaged grocery inflation dropped, while fruit & veg prices increased. The broader news on inflation has been largely in line with RBA expectations. We expect interest rates will remain on hold till next year and movements in interest rates will have limited impact on retail spending.

Australian inflation stepped down further to 3.6% in the March 2024 quarter year on year. Our calculation of retail price inflation is at 2.0% for the quarter, flat on the prior quarter. Lower price inflation for retailer puts added pressure on driving volumes. While broader inflation is slowing, the pace of the slowdown indicates that rate cuts are more likely a 2025 event and risk is to the upside on the upcoming wage award decision for retailer wages.

We have updated our retail sales outlook, with modestly higher forecasts for 2024. We forecast 2.7% growth (up from 2.5% previously). We have lifted our non-food forecasts, but lowered food & liquor forecasts. The prevailing sales trends are very soft but should improve in the back-half of calendar 2024 as income tax cuts flow through. We only see a modest pick up because lower retail price inflation will constrain overall sales growth in FY25e.

Australian inflation stepped down to 4.1% in the December 2023 quarter year on year. Our calculation of retail price inflation is at 1.9% for the quarter dropping back from 3.4% in the September quarter. The drop in inflation is negative for the revenue outlook in retail, particularly given retail volumes (including supermarkets) are also declining. However, the more rapid drop in broader inflation may help bring forward interest rate cuts and ease wage pressures a little in FY25e.

Australian retail sales increased 3.0% in June 2023. The notable swings for the month were a moderation in the sales decline for electronics but a sharper slowdown for fashion and department stores. The downturn is spreading to more categories and will continue through to late this calendar year. The data also reveals that retail volumes per capita declined by 3.4% in the June 2023 quarter. Elevated price inflation is propping up spending and will fade later this calendar year in non-food and by mid-2024 in food.