Inflation for the March 2025 quarter

A low point in retail inflation for now

Published: 30 April 2025

Australian inflation for the March 2025 quarter was 2.4% continuing a trend of decelerating inflation in the past year. Lower petrol prices and energy bill subsidies are helping. In retail, there was pick up in supermarket inflation, largely for meat and fresh produce. For non-food retail, there was deflation in a range of categories such as electronics, hardware, sporting goods and footwear, which may signal some margin pressure. With some input cost pressures and a lower Australian dollar, retail inflation is more likely to tick up from here. The trimmed mean inflation of 2.9% is instructive for the upcoming wage decision by the Fair Work Commission and may see retail wage rate growth of 3.3% to 3.7% for FY26e in our view.

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