Bapcor reported FY24 sales of $2.03 billion up 1% and EBITDA of $269 million down 10%. Net profit fell by 24% pre significant items on higher interest costs. The company reported a small improvement in sales early in FY25e. However, the drop in 2H24 profit margins is likely to result in only modest EBITDA growth for FY25e even though the company has cost savings to flow through. During the second-half all Bapcor’s divisions had negative same store sales performance with Trade down by 1.5%, Retail down 1.0% and New Zealand lower by 0.5%.

Super Retail Group reported FY24 EBIT of $400 million, which was down 9% year-on-year, but up 57% on FY19 levels. This represents a compound annual growth rate of 9%. Given sales trends are starting to improve EBIT should also start to rise. The question is how much. We expect LFL sales to remain between 1%-3% and EBIT margins will be largely steady. Increased competition in auto keeps us cautious about group profit margin expansion. The company’s FY24 EBIT margin of 10.3% is about 80bp higher than FY19 supported by higher gross margins.

Domino’s reported FY24 EBIT of $208 million, up 3%. Second-half growth was stronger at 13% driven by cost savings. Same store sales growth (SSSg) remains sluggish but there are some positive signs around franchisee profitability. We expect improving sales trends in 2H25e as Japan and France benefit from higher marketing spend and better profitability. Domino’s also reported an improvement in its gearing metrics in FY24 with a further improvement likely in FY25e. There are signs of improvement to franchisee profitability but remains a long runway to the target of $130k EBITDA per store.

Breville’s FY24 result highlighted better 2H24 sales trends in EMEA and the Americas. The company is likely to deliver good revenue growth in FY25e from these regions given new product launches and extended geographic reach. Breville is investing for growth with increased product development costs, while at the same time generating good cash flow.

Treasury Wines reported FY24 EBITS of $658 million with organic growth of only 4% adjusted for acquisitions and currency. The result showed the importance of the DAOU acquisition to earnings and its increasing focus on the luxury wine segment. Earnings growth in FY25e will half come from the growth of DAOU and a further quarter from Penfolds price rises. The underlying business is likely to have limited growth outside these factors given pressure on wine demand under $15 per bottle.

JB Hi-Fi reported FY24 EBIT down 16%. Sales momentum and margins were encouraging in the second-half and the company has consistently gained market share over the past five years. We expect another year of softening margins, albeit overall EPS should be up slightly in FY25e. While JB Hi-Fi is clearly a well-run business, we expect future earnings growth is likely to be low single-digit at best.

Nick Scali reported an EBIT result of $130 million for FY24, down 16%. Gross margin of 65.5% for the group and 66.0% the Australia and New Zealand (ANZ) division was a standout and record. For FY25e we expect to see modest store openings, an improvement in per store sales growth momentum from ANZ and moderate cost growth. A catalyst to the upside would be a lower sea freight rate environment and progress in the UK.

Treasury Wines has announced a write-down of $354 million pre-tax, or -33%, to its Treasury Premium Brands division. The write-down reflects weak profitability in commercial wine under $10 per bottle, of which Treasury is not alone. In many respects, we see the announcement as accounting catching up to the market reality for such wines. The bigger question on our mind is what form a divestment of commercial brands could take. These commercial brands are less than 5% of group gross profit but may be close to 20% of volumes. The challenges in commercial wine vindicates the increasing focus on luxury wines in the market. 

Australian wine exports have rebounded in the June 2024 quarter, largely given the sell-in of wines to Chinese retailers and distributors. Total exports were up 81% year-on-year. While it is good news, we will need more time to judge the rebound in Chinese consumer demand for Australian wine. Nevertheless, it does suggest concerns about excess supply already in China may be overdone.