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Endeavour Group (EDV) - The outlook for liquor industry sales

A hangover or something more?

08 November 2024

Endeavour’s share price has dropped 10% in the past quarter. Our take is the share market is concerned about the outlook for liquor industry demand and the transition to a new CEO. We address the liquor industry outlook in this report and find that the weakness in sales is more a function of the COVID-19 spike in demand than a structural concern. We expect retail liquor sales to improve meaningfully by June 2025 and support better earnings for Endeavour. 

Inghams (ING) - FY24 result analysis

Customer risk or opportunity?

29 August 2024

Inghams reported FY24 EBITDA of $240 million pre AASB-16, growth of 29% (on 52-week basis). While the result was good, second-half earnings growth was soft and the company revealed that Woolworths will cut back volumes with Inghams to diversify its supplier risk. We expect Woolworths’ FY25e volumes will fall 10%-20% with Inghams. Lower feed costs are a strong tailwind for FY25e and should offset much of the headwind from lower Woolworths volumes.

Domino's Pizza (DMP) 1H23 result

Franchisees feeling the pressure

24 February 2023

Domino’s reported network sales down 4% and EBIT down 21% in 1H23. The worrying sign near-term is weak same store sales growth (SSSg) trends persisted into 2H23e and the company has seen a volume reaction to its price rises, limiting its much-needed improvement in system profitability. Our primary concern is the deterioration of franchisee profitability which is trending 30% below recent peaks and at a level that will discourage new store openings.

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