Inghams reported 1H26 EBITDA of $81 million, close to guidance.  Even though earnings were near guidance, the company has downgraded its FY26e outlook. The reasons cited appear mostly temporary but there are structural challenges around supply chain costs serving its customers. Inghams volume and price outlook are more encouraging and margins should recover. However, with such volatility in earnings over the past 18 months and high gearing, it will take time to rebuild investor trust.

Inghams reported FY25 EBITDA pre AASB-16 of $236 million. While earnings were steady year-on- year on a 52-week basis, the fourth quarter deteriorated given excess poultry supply and lower prices. The oversupply arose because Inghams thought it could replace the lost Woolworths volumes. Oversupply will hurt Inghams’ 1H26e EBITDA but then should correct itself as production is reset. We expect pricing and margins to drop in 1H26e but then rise in 2H26e.

The Myer strategy day gave a clearer view of the business in its current form and addressed many initiatives to drive improvement. Strategies previously outline are on track to be delivered in FY27e. There are several initiatives underway with no long-term targets provided yet. As Myer delivers on initiatives we expect to hear more on targets.