The outlook for retailers this festive season is constructive. Perhaps it is best characterised as a sign of the times where consumers are acting cautiously but do have money to spend. Therefore discounts are working. Black Friday event sales were likely up 4%-7% for many retailers based on our feedback. We expect the strongest growth was online. Amazon took share. Home appliances, fashion and beauty have done best. However, there are more discounts.

Lovisa’s AGM trading update revealed weakening sales trends and a slower pace of net new store openings. We expect to see a year of slower store openings, influenced by the CEO transition period being so drawn out. Increasing competition and promotional activity weighs on margins.

Accent Group will provide a trading update at its November AGM. Like-for-like sales growth for the first seven weeks of FY25e was 3.5%. We expect trends to have slowed slightly and forecast 1H25e like-for-like sales of 2.8%. We have included the recently announced distribution agreements to our forecasts.  We also consider peer commentary on gross margin and competitive behaviour.

Coles’ investor day last week kept the messages high level and consistent about its strategy with an emphasis on value, digital evolution and efficient execution. The focus was its online and distribution centre automated fulfillment. While Witron is clearly proven, for the Ocado CFCs, we expect the payback will be very long-dated. Coles recent capex projects will lift profit margins over the next two years. 

Endeavour Group’s 1Q25 result showed weaker retail sales trends and indications that gross margins are coming under pressure. The company said that Retail segment EBIT margins will fall by 50-100bp in 1H25e. We expect weak sales trends to persist a little longer, but the problem isn’t structural. The company has increased discounting to improve sales, which has hurt margins, but is yet to help sales.

The festive season is the key profit driver for almost all Australian retailers. Its shape has shifted meaningfully over the past decade as Australian shoppers have embraced Black Friday promotions. We expect an even bigger November sales period in 2024 as more retailers and consumers position for Black Friday deals. While November gets bigger, it has largely been at the expense of December sales. The timing of promotional events is also shifting a little and we may see promotions earlier in November this year. The primary risk for retailers is longer, deeper discounting impacting gross profit margins. 

Lovisa has enjoyed a relatively low level of competition. The company has a moat related to the breadth of its frequently refreshed and low-price product offering. How defensive is that moat?  A new entrant in Harli + Harpa, led by ex Lovisa CEO, Shane Fallscheer will launch shortly. Lovisa has derisked its Australian exposure, but its domestic market remains a key funding source for its global expansion aspirations. There are early signs of weakness in Australia and increasing competition will put downward pressure on the highly attractive margins. The global expansion is the key driver of growth for Lovisa but the domestic market still matters.

This chart pack provides subscribers with insights about the retail operating environment and outlook for wages, floor space and profit margins. The chart pack has been compiled post the FY24 reporting season across the retail market providing fresh insights about the sector.

City Chic reported an FY24 pre-AASB 16 EBITDA loss of $19 million, an $8 million smaller loss than in FY23. This was a beat to the guidance of -$22 million provided at the time of the capital raising in June 2024. City Chic’s trading update showed positive comparable sales up 9.9% and further, provided revenue guidance of $142 to $160 million for FY25e.

Lovisa reported FY24 EBIT of $128 million, up 21%. Sales of $697 million, up 17.3% were a 2% miss to Visible Alpha consensus. The comparable sales trading update at 2.0%, while an improvement on 2H24 was lower than consensus expectation. Sales on a per store basis in A$ were lower across all segments. The gross margin performance was a highlight, delivering 81.2% in 2H24 and 80.9% for the full year, up 108bp. Elevated costs, especially wages and rents, suggest there is little operating leverage being realised so far.