Premier Investments reported 1H26 Retail EBIT (pre AASB-16 and excluding significant items) of $119 million, down 7.8%. Total sales were flat with gross margin of 66.9%, which fell 92bp. With Peter Alexander sales per store slowing and the UK in trial phase, a Smiggle turnaround will drive the earnings growth.

Given the increased uncertainty for consumers, we have put together a slide deck to help navigate the potential risks to retail demand over the next 12 months. Separately we have published reports about both the risk from higher petrol prices and what history tells us about the impact of interest rate hikes on retail spending.

SPC Global reiterated guidance of full year normalised EBITDA growth of 25%. SPC Global 1H26 EBITDA of $13 million implies 2H25e EBITDA of $25 million with full year FY26e EBITDA of $38 million. We forecast that the EBITDA improvement in 1H26 benefitted from the delivery of synergies and the exit of low margin contracts offset missed international sales impacted by timing differences.

Oil price shocks are relatively rare but they do lead to a spike in fuel prices. In Issue 10 of Price Watch, we explore the duration of fuel price spikes and their impact on both consumer demand and costs across the retail value chain. The impact of a 30-cent increase in fuel prices could drop retail sales growth by 0.8% with the most substantial impact in the first five months following the spike. The most notable impact is on takeaway food, fashion and hardware sales. The impact on retailers and consumers is broader than just the fuel price impact because product transport costs, energy costs and product packaging are also impacted by oil price movements.

Sigma reported 1H26 normalised revenue growth of 15% and EBIT growth of 19%. The sales result was strong but the modest operating leverage is a reminder of the inherently low gross margins in the business. Sales trends are strong but likely to slow from here. We expect LFL to remain double-digit in 2H26e, but then slip into single-digit territory for FY27e as the company laps higher growth and price inflation fades. Going forward, each 1% sales growth to translate into approximately 1.5% EBIT growth. Synergies will continue to help earnings over the next four years.

Endeavour Group’s 1H26 result release revealed ongoing weakness in Retail liquor sales and further gross margin pressure for 2H26e. Gross margin investment that commenced in September 2025 needs to flow through and should start to boost sales late in FY26e as marketing is ramped up. However, EBIT recovery will only begin in FY27e. The Hotel segment is seeing good momentum from site renewals and more will be done over the next year. However, it is grappling with higher cost growth.

Australian retail sales rose 5.5% in January 2026, a slight softening on recent trends, but still highlighting a strong consumer. Café, takeaway and restaurant sales rose 9.3%, clothing and footwear was up 6.5%. Once again supermarkets and liquor were the laggard at 3.5% growth. The reality is that sales growth momentum is likely to slow, but the January 2026 update is a reminder that the slowdown is likely to be gradual over the next six months.

Domino’s reported network sales down 2% and EBIT up 1% in 1H26.  The company is pursuing cost savings and lower discounting aggressively. However, so far the drop in same store sales seems larger than the gross margin gain for franchisees. We expect SSSg to decline in FY26e and return to very modest growth in FY27e as the company focuses more on gross margins. A good portion of targeted cost savings will be passed onto franchisees. Even so they account for less than half the required lift in franchisee EBITDA. Domino’s is taking decisive action to restore profitability but we expect the stock to be range bound until the new CEO starts by August 2026.

Bapcor has made the painful decision to raise equity to fix its balance sheet at a time when earnings have fallen dramatically. EBITDA dropped 40% in 1H26. The equity raising should reduce leverage to 1.2x net debt to EBITDA (pre AASB-16) in FY27e, which gives a buffer to fix the business. The fix required is substantial. Bapcor focuses on its EBITDA margin (post AASB-16), which is on track to be 8% for FY26e. The EBIT margin, pre AASB-16, is much lower at 2.3% and highlights the need to more than double margins to be viable. In our view, margin recovery requires a 10% or more lift in sales, store closures and better efficiency within its supply chain. Bapcor has a poor track record of execution and will take time to restore confidence with investors.

Wesfarmers reported EBIT growth of 8% in 1H26. There was solid growth in its retail business and an outsized earnings improvement in lithium and associate income. The shape of the result raises debate about the likely operating leverage in Bunnings and Kmart, which we expect to be modest, especially as depreciation expenses normalise. We are also likely to see slowing sales trends on a 12-month horizon given weaker household income growth and fading price inflation. Wesfarmers will have solid EPS growth of 7% over FY26e and FY27e helped by higher lithium prices.