We have reviewed the US price and volume backdrop for Breville. Price rises put through in August 2025 look like they have stuck, albeit December was very promotional. Price rises of 3% will be partly offset by lower volume growth in our view. Breville’s 1H26e EBIT could rise by 4% with the tariff impacts only affecting three months of the period. We expect flat EBIT in FY26e.

Breville reported 10.2% EBIT growth for FY25, with slightly weaker growth in 2H25. The key debate on this company is the magnitude and timing of the impact of US tariffs on its earnings. We expect the combination of tariffs with some offsetting cost savings to result in a slight lift in FY26e EBIT to $206 million. The tariff headwinds will continue into FY27e because of its inventory cycle and temper EBIT growth in that year as well. We forecast FY27e EBIT of $220 million. Beyond FY27e, the company should return to 7%-10% EBIT growth.