We have reviewed the US price and volume backdrop for Breville. Price rises put through in August 2025 look like they have stuck, albeit December was very promotional. Price rises of 3% will be partly offset by lower volume growth in our view. Breville’s 1H26e EBIT could rise by 4% with the tariff impacts only affecting three months of the period. We expect flat EBIT in FY26e.

Breville reported 10.2% EBIT growth for FY25, with slightly weaker growth in 2H25. The key debate on this company is the magnitude and timing of the impact of US tariffs on its earnings. We expect the combination of tariffs with some offsetting cost savings to result in a slight lift in FY26e EBIT to $206 million. The tariff headwinds will continue into FY27e because of its inventory cycle and temper EBIT growth in that year as well. We forecast FY27e EBIT of $220 million. Beyond FY27e, the company should return to 7%-10% EBIT growth.

With 45% of sales in the US, Breville is in the cross-hairs of the disruption from US tariffs. In this report, we assess Breville’s relative competitive position in the US for imported products, estimate the impact tariffs could have on earnings and discuss alternatives the company may pursue. Breville is in a decent position given most imports in small appliances come from China (and other Asia). Breville could see an earnings impact of -19%, or -$38 million on our estimates from the tariffs, with lower volumes, some margin compression partially offset by lower cost of goods, marketing and staff incentives.

The much-anticipated announcement by the US Government of reciprocal tariffs creates an environment of uncertainty. For Australian consumer companies, there could be a silver lining through lower cost of goods on products sourced from China or other low-cost countries. Breville and Lovisa face some challenges given their US operations, but also stand to benefit from lower sourcing costs. Treasury Wines will face tariffs on a small part of its business importing wines from NZ and Australia, but its US business could benefit from higher prices on French & Italian wines competing with its domestic US premium portfolio.