Bapcor has provided yet another soft trading update, which results in lower EBITDA for FY27e. We reduce our EBITDA forecasts by 7%-10% over the next three years. Bapcor had shown signs of sales stabilisation but industry-wide delays in vehicle servicing have led to weaker sales from April 2026 and will continue until fuel prices subside.

Woolworths reported 14% EBIT growth for 1H26, helped by improving sales trends and more consistent execution across its divisions. While a good result, there was a low base in the previous corresponding half. Woolworths sales trends may slow from here and the margin gains in eCommerce and Digital & media will be difficult to repeat. The outlook for FY26e through to FY28e is good as margins recover further and supply chain investments deliver a return. The PE premium to Coles is back to its long-term average.

Breville’s FY24 result highlighted better 2H24 sales trends in EMEA and the Americas. The company is likely to deliver good revenue growth in FY25e from these regions given new product launches and extended geographic reach. Breville is investing for growth with increased product development costs, while at the same time generating good cash flow.