Treasury Wines long-term incentives (LTIs) have a 50% weighting to EPS growth, with the remainder split between relative total shareholder return and the Project Ascent cost savings. The focus on EPS makes an exit or sale of the Americas segment challenging given it could be around 9% EPS dilutive. While the reported asset value of the Americas is near $2.65 billion, a sale price could be closer to $850-1,000 million. Exiting the US would allow investors to focus on the appropriate value and earnings potential of Penfolds.

Metcash’s sales trends are improving with the tobacco headwind turning into a tailwind and higher price inflation in hardware supporting sales growth. We forecast 3% sales growth for 1H27e, up from 1.9% at its trading update given in mid-June 2026 and only 0.3% in its 2H26 result. While sales trends are better, the source of sales growth is lower margin.

Domino’s reported network sales down 7% and EBIT up 1% in FY26. The company is aggressively pursuing cost savings and lower discounting across its network. We expect modest EBIT growth in FY27e, however the quality of earnings growth is lower with EBITDA declining. The shape of earnings revisions shows the outcome of a lower operating cost base and shrinking store network in the near-term, but bigger downgrades in later years from underinvestment in marketing to chase profitable growth.

Wesfarmers reported EBIT growth of 7% in FY26. The company’s retail businesses had EBIT growth of 4%. Bunnings has so far shown resilient performance, but it is too early to see any downturn. Hardware sales are well correlated with mortgage refinancing, three months lagged. The downturn is imminent, around September 2026. We see same store sales slowing to 2% or so. Kmart will have low EBIT growth in FY27e as it upgrades its distribution centre. Wesfarmers will also have a step-up in interest costs of 17% in FY27e.

Sigma reported FY26 EBIT sales up 16% and EBIT up 21% on a normalised basis. Sales trends were slightly slower in 2H26 and we expect 10% to 11% Australian like-for-like (LFL) sales growth in FY27e. For a company with double-digit sales growth, operating leverage is low. Sigma had 43bp of EBIT margin expansion in FY26, with lower gross margins partially offsetting fixed cost leverage. We forecast 43bp of margin expansion again in FY27e. We expect a bigger contribution from International earnings with faster store openings. International EBIT could double in two years.

Woolworths reported FY26 sales growth of 4%, EBITDA growth of 7% and EBIT up 13%. The company’s sales momentum remains good and it should continue for the next six months, but then outperformance is likely to fade as Woolworths laps higher promotional activity. We expect a modest pick-up in inflation. Woolworths earnings growth was helped by unusually low depreciation growth. Nevertheless, Woolworths has more margin expansion opportunity over the next three years than Coles. The NZ and Big W segments had better earnings. The path to a 10%+ return on funds is plausible for these businesses but margins would still be low by historical and industry standards.

Coles Group reported FY26 EBIT growth of 10% driven by better gross margins and tight cost control in its Supermarket business. The outlook for margin expansion from here is limited given Supermarket margins are at a decade high and cost inflation will be elevated in the next 12 months. Coles Liquor business may stabilise earnings, but its EBIT margin of less than 2% looks like persisting for some time. Coles will spend more capex on supermarket renewals and automated DCs. This is sensible investment but does mean that free cash flow will be limited.

Australian national accounts for the June 2026 quarter showed household income growth of 5.5%, which remains above trend despite recent rate hikes. Consumer spending rose 4.9%, which means savings increased slightly. Data released on retail spending trends is conflicting. The retail sales release suggests growth of 5.0% for the June quarter, while the national accounts subset only had 3.1% growth. Data debates aside, the strength in the economy is likely to lead to one more interest rate increase and therefore lingering pressure on retail spending. We expect a slowdown will become more evident in the December 2026 quarter as lower housing churn shows through. The negative wealth effect is also building as a downside risk for retail sales. We forecast retail sales growth of 3.7% in FY27e, down from 5.1% in FY26.

Ampol reported 1H26 EBIT of $1,392 million, which is more than it has made in any entire year. The positive impacts of the Iran war shock boosted earnings in refining and its fuel wholesale operations significantly. The glide path lower for refining and wholesale earnings should still result in outsized margins over 2H26e and FY27e. We set a long-term refiner margin at $12.50 (prev $11.90) by FY28e. The Convenience segment result showed modest dollar margin growth of 4.7%. The addition of EG from 2H26e onwards will distort margin metrics given the thinner margins in EG, but therein lies the upside in synergies.

Harvey Norman reported FY26 EBITDA up 8%. However, cracks are emerging with sales slowing and Franchise segment EBITDA dropping in the second-half. Conditions are likely to deteriorate over the next 12 months, especially if Harvey Norman continues to fund more franchisee discounting. Sales are also falling in NZ, Harvey Norman’s second largest market. Harvey Norman usually delivers more operating leverage than other large retailers. As we enter a downturn in the housing cycle, lower sales will reduce earnings.