Treasury Wines reported FY26e EBITS down 36%. The result reflected destocking in Penfolds, lower volumes in the Americas and higher operating costs. The earnings base should stabilise in FY27e at circa $496 million on our estimates, but this understates the true earnings potential because there will be more than $100 million in forgone profits from destocking in FY27e. The Americas segment will feel the most pain. We see underlying EBITS settling between $580-$620 million over FY28e-FY29e.

Woolworths has good sales momentum, which has led to a higher PE ratio. The chances of surprisingly strong sales momentum in Woolworths trading update is high given the success of the Ooshies collectables campaign. We may see sales growth of 7%+. However, such programs have no discernible ongoing benefit to sales. As a result, Woolworths sales trends are peaking and are likely to slow through FY27e.

Premier Investments reported FY26e Retail EBIT of $176 million, down 10%. Weak sales in 2H26e led to FY26e sales of $796 million, down 2.1%. Premier also announced the decision to exit Peter Alexander in the UK.

Nick Scali delivered FY26 EBIT of $125 million, up 18%. Sales growth underwhelmed with a weak second half. Gross margin improved in FY26 to 65.6% up 207bp. The flat trading update for written sales orders signalled an improvement in momentum but it might be temporary. We have lowered our sales forecasts on our expectations of a tougher environment but lifted our gross margin expectations. We need to see more evidence of improving sales before getting positive on the sales recovery.

Chemist Warehouse has sustained double-digit comparable sales growth for three consecutive years. The retailer has won market share from other pharmacies and Coles and Woolworths. Chemist Warehouse advantages are its pricing tactics and breadth of range. While Coles and Woolworths are unlikely to fix their ranging issue, they may adjust pricing tactics. Chemist Warehouse is cheaper than the supermarkets when comparing shelf prices to Chemist Warehouse’ standard price, but much less so when comparing promotional prices. The risk to Chemist Warehouse is that Coles and Woolworths use everyday low pricing tactics to improve their relative pricing to Chemist Warehouse. They have begun lowering prices on high profile products and more will come over the next 12 months. We may see a slowdown in Chemist Warehouse sales growth towards single digits over the next year.

Domino’s provided a trading update that shows steady profits and improved franchisee profitability for FY26e. The missing link was that sales trends deteriorated and more stores will be closed. We expect same store sales to decline 1.1% in FY27e, on top of the 4.1% fall in FY26. While store closures and cost savings will help EBIT, cost inflation and declining sales largely offset.

Ampol’s 1H26e trading update revealed an even stronger half of earnings than the market expected, albeit the earnings growth was centred on trading profits given oil price volatility. Ampol stated that EBIT would be near $1,350 million for 1H26e, a rise of $946 million. The key question is the sustainability of earnings. Refining margins may stay elevated while there is Middle East conflict but lower volatility oil market would result in lower earnings.

Australian retail sales rose 4.8% in June 2026, compared with the same month last year. While a slight slowdown in growth, the weakness was very specific to department stores and discount department stores. Elsewhere, household goods sales strengthened and café & restaurant sales remain above trend. Retail demand remains strong and makes higher interest rates a risk. We expect the RBA will need to see retail sales growth of less than 4% in order to take a neutral stance. The drivers of a slowdown in spending will take a few more months to work through, particularly in the household goods categories.

The link provides a presentation associated with a webinar we held. The recording is embedded in the email and details our revised forecasts for retail in the year head. We addressed the impact of higher interest rates, lower house prices and retail price inflation. All these factors will shape the timing and shape of a retail sales slowdown in FY27e. The presentation deck is now live on the website. 

Viva’s 1H26 trading update showed a continuation of near-term benefits from higher oil prices and refining. The strong earnings result has helped lower net debt by $400 million. There may be some residual benefits in 2H26e, but the outlook for retail fuel margins and gross margins in Convenience is negative. The company is also likely to see lower refining margins given the prevailing oil price.