We have pulled together a chart pack of market share across retail segments. The key insights we draw from it are:

• Major supermarket chains both taking share, which is rare: Coles and Woolworths combined market share rose 60bps in FY26. Typically market share is flat. Tobacco headwind has hurt independent supermarkets and Aldi has been more focused on profitability. The majors share gains likely to be smaller in FY27e.
• Online driving share gains: Online industry sales growth of 14% in FY26 and ASX-listed retailers delivered 17%. Large retailers are leveraging their traffic to grow marketplace sales.
• Value focused offerings winning over premium: In both department stores and apparel retailing, consumers gravitated to value focused offerings. In clothing, Uniqlo and Glassons have taken share 35bps of share collectively, whilst Kmart has taken 58bps of share while David Jones and Myer together lost 43bps.
• Less reliable ABS data: Our work on market share is designed to provide insight about market structure and the relative performance. ABS retail sales data releases have become less transparent and the data source is less reliable. We have combined datasets where possible to provide the most accurate view on market share.

GyG has reported resilient sales trends despite broader economic headwinds. In 1Q27 comp sales grew 7.1%, an acceleration on 4Q26. The baseline matters in interpreting the strength, but GyG is ideally positioned with growth in online, breakfast and late night occasions and its price rises remain below industry-average. We expect comp sales to remain above 5% over the next two years. EBITDA margins will improve too.

Sigma only has 18 months of history as a merged business and therefore an understanding of its earnings drivers is still emerging. While the growth prospects for Chemist Warehouse domestically and internationally are strong, Sigma is ultimately a wholesaler and franchisor. Modest leverage from converting revenue growth into EBIT growth is a function of its revenue mix. Close to 40% of Australian revenue is PBS prescriptions, where margins are thin. We expect revenue growth of 8% to 16% p.a and operating leverage of 1.0-1.3x over the next three years. This translates to EPS growth CAGR of 15.8% over three years but puts a greater emphasis on revenue to drive EPS.

Lovisa’s comparable sales growth for the start to FY27e of 3% puts it in the accelerating category of Australian listed retailers. Store closures increased in FY26 as management shut underperforming stores, a dynamic we expect to continue in FY27e. Nonetheless, Lovisa’s store rollout is a key driver of sales growth. Lovisa’s store network potential will see stores nearly double over the next decade with the potential to reach 3,000+ stores over time.

Like most Australian retailers, JB Hi-Fi faces a weaker demand backdrop. While there are risks to sales, the difference to previous cycles is the presence of inflation in some electronics categories. Even so, investors should expect weak sales trends for up to two years for JB Hi-Fi. Near term, the phasing of the iPhone 18 launch won’t save sales in 1Q27e. Inflation in gaming consoles may boost 2Q27e and 3Q27e has some product tailwinds.

Australian retail sales rose 5.3% for August 2026 on the same month a year ago. Once again, retail sales growth remains above long-term average. The only exception in August was weakness in department stores and discount department stores. Other discretionary categories like household goods, clothing, restaurants and cafes were all above trend. The extent of the sales strength will embolden the RBA to raise rates and slow pending. While sales trends are bound to slow, the downturn is likely to remain gradual. We remain cautious about the December 2026 quarter and expect a soft 2027 as well.

Now that reporting season is over for Australian retail, we have finalised the themes and issues observed during FY26. The strength of sales trends in FY26 has been met with weaker trading updates going into FY27e as the consumer faces a number of headwinds to end 2026 – interest rates hikes, falling house prices and higher petrol prices add risk to the retail outlook. The impacts are likely to be more significant in the 1H27e fiscal period and more painful in housing-related retail categories and takeaway food.

Premier Investments reported FY26 Retail EBIT (pre AASB-16 and excluding significant items) of $176 million, down 10%. Total sales fell 2% as the Smiggle sales decline offset growth in Peter Alexander. We lower our gross margin and cost assumptions. A strong balance sheet, buyback and healthy dividend provide optionality for inorganic growth and flexibility for the Smiggle turnaround efforts.

Myer reported underlying EBIT of $139 million for FY26, down 23% on the proforma pcp. Myer delivered flat sales growth and gross margin fell 80bp on a proforma basis. Myer’s trading update for the first eight weeks of FY27e reported total sales of -2.7%. We have increased our sales forecasts, lowered our gross margin expectations and our lease interest expense.

Most retailers have had wage growth exceed sales growth over the past five years. The wage cost challenge will continue and retailers will need to explore labour productivity improvements. In Issue 11, of Retail Mosaic we analyse labour productivity and benchmark the ASX-listed retailers. JB Hi-Fi and Nick Scali are already world-class. Bunnings, Dusk, Nick Scali UK and Woolworths are all retailers we have identified where labour productivity upside should support profit margins. Retailers will install more self-checkouts, electronic shelf labels and supply chain automation to help lower wage costs over the next five years.