We have updated our forecasts for Ampol and Viva given the refining margin outlook. While the outlook is still fluid, it will clearly be a strong year for both companies in FY26e. We assume a refining margin of US$18/bbl for Ampol and US$19/bbl for Viva in FY26e. For Ampol, higher margins will translate to FY26e group EBITDA of $1,817 million (EBIT of $1,299 million) and for Viva we forecast EBITDA of $1,124 million. In our view, the benefits of elevated margins will have dissipated by the end of FY26e and as a result, the revision to our medium-term earnings is much smaller.

Viva reported a lift in group fuel volumes, better gross margins in its convenience stores and higher refining margin in 4Q25. While all these signs are encouraging, the refining margin increase was smaller than Ampol’s given maintenance and power outages. Moreover, the improvement in convenience gross margin was made on a lower sales base. Viva’s cost savings seem to be flowing through but the company will need to show a more meaningful lift in sales from the OTR conversions in order to see any re-rating.