Viva’s 1H26 trading update showed a continuation of near-term benefits from higher oil prices and refining. The strong earnings result has helped lower net debt by $400 million. There may be some residual benefits in 2H26e, but the outlook for retail fuel margins and gross margins in Convenience is negative. The company is also likely to see lower refining margins given the prevailing oil price.

We have updated our forecasts for Ampol and Viva given the refining margin outlook. While the outlook is still fluid, it will clearly be a strong year for both companies in FY26e. We assume a refining margin of US$18/bbl for Ampol and US$19/bbl for Viva in FY26e. For Ampol, higher margins will translate to FY26e group EBITDA of $1,817 million (EBIT of $1,299 million) and for Viva we forecast EBITDA of $1,124 million. In our view, the benefits of elevated margins will have dissipated by the end of FY26e and as a result, the revision to our medium-term earnings is much smaller.