SPC Global has reiterated FY26 guidance of 25% growth in normalised EBITDA. The synergy realisation program has highlighted further savings. We increase our total savings from $16 million to $19 million. Following the equity raise in May 2026, leverage will fall from 4.0x to <2.0x at FY26e and could be less than 1.0x in FY27e.

Amazon’s Australian 2025 results show an even larger increase in sales for last calendar year. We estimate its gross transaction value was $9.1 billion, an increase of 31%. Amazon accounted for over one-fifth of the non-food industry’s growth last year. Put differently, it detracts about one percentage point of growth from the rest of the non-food retail industry. Amazon continues to lift marketing spend and Prime subscriber numbers too. Amazon is a classic long-term structural challenge for retail, not an overnight disruption. It is likely to continue at its current pace for at least another three years given its supply chain capacity. The threat to incumbent retailers will remain a gradual squeeze, not a crush of profit margins.