Ampol has announced the proposed acquisition of the 500-store EG petrol station network. The acquisition price of $1,050 million is at an EV/EBIT of 24.8x pre synergies, or 9.1x post synergies (pre AASB-16), which highlights the importance of the synergies in this deal. Given Ampol’s existing supply to EG and ability to accelerate the rollout of U-Go un-manned stations, the synergies look plausible. We lift our target price from $28.50 to $30.00 to reflect the EG deal noting that it could be 5%-6% EPS accretive by FY29e. The key unknown is ACCC approval.

JB Hi-Fi reported FY25 EBIT of $708 million, excluding significant items. Operating profit growth of 9% was solid and largely reflected good sales trends in the year. While the housing cycle may improve, the more important driver of its sales outlook is price inflation, which is falling away. We expect sales growth of 3%-4% for JB Hi-Fi Australia and The Good Guys. The EBIT margin profile is likely steady going forward because a higher portion of sales growth will come from low margin businesses and wage and rent cost growth will remain elevated.

Nick Scali delivered EBIT of $106 million, down 18%. Gross margins in ANZ were down 100bp but remain elevated on history at 65%. The UK losses at $9.6 million exceeded expectations, with losses guided to continue. Our EPS revisions are a downgrade of 1.6% to FY26e but upgrades of 2.5% and 1.5% to FY27e and FY28e. A large sales uplift is required to break even in the UK, with current conditions supportive domestically. Nick Scali will have to deliver on the UK and on growth in the domestic market.

Endeavour Group’s announcement that Executive Chairman, Ari Mervis, will step down naturally raises many questions. However, one question it helps answer is that near-term sales and earnings look like they are stabilising. The teleconference call made it clear that the strategy “refresh” is just the beginning. As a result, there could still be substantial change in Endeavour and earnings risk under new CEO Jayne Hrdlicka who starts in January 2026.

Domino’s recently announced that its relatively new CEO Mark Van Dyck would step down. While the Board is supportive of his strategic plan, it wanted faster progress. The limited detail we have on its strategy shows a focus on improved profit margins more so than store growth. We expect limited sales growth and margin recovery will only be evident in 2026 onwards.

We initiate coverage on dusk, an Australian specialty retailer of Home Fragrance Products, offering a range of dusk branded products at competitive prices from its physical stores and online store. We see dusk pushing plans to improve sales productivity through new product development, category expansion, increasing the release rate of new product and the opening of more metro stores. 

The more alarming features of Bapcor’s trading update are the rapid deterioration in sales and immediate departure of three board members. While somewhat “glass half-full” we interpret the FY25e trading update as more a “clean out” of the financials and a reset. Management targets over FY25e to FY30e will be easier to achieve.

The Australian consumer sector is likely to report a wide divergence in fortunes this reporting season. Even though sales trends are improving, operating cost growth is elevated and gross margin gains are fading. The companies with the best earnings growth for FY25e are likely to be Breville, GyG, Harvey Norman, Lovisa, Sigma and Treasury Wines. For most of these, consensus expectations are already high and commentary on current trading and costs will influence share prices. At the other end, retailers with double-digit declines in earnings are Endeavour, Myer, Nick Scali and Woolworths.

Ampol’s 2Q25 trading update showed improving margin performance across the majority of its segments. Refinery margins in diesel have lifted globally and its convenience operations in Australia & NZ are seeing improving fuel margins. While conditions are good, the EBIT momentum is in line with our thinking.

Australian inflation for the June 2025 quarter has dropped further to 2.1%. In retail categories, the rate of price inflation has remained largely unchanged overall. However, there are a number of sub-sector distinctions of note. Packaged grocery inflation ticked up in the June quarter and electronics deflation eased. Hardware prices are now in decline, pharmacy prices have flat-lined and sporting goods are in deflation too.  The direction of retail inflation is likely to be lower over the next 12 months, helping affordability, but hurting retail sales growth. The benefit of lower inflation on interest rates is positive for retail outlook, but we view the magnitude of the impact as over-hyped. We expect retail sales growth to improve to 3.9% for FY26e, up from 3.3% in FY25.