Viva reported a strong 1H26 EBITDA increase of 154%, which reflects much higher refining margins and the Liberty acquisition. The Convenience business may have slippage in 2H26e EBITDA given higher cost inflation and weaker retail fuel margins. The refining backdrop remains very supportive for 2H26e and even into FY27e.

Viva’s 3Q25 trading update reveals challenges still exist in its Convenience segment with a decline in tobacco gross profit. However, elsewhere in the business conditions are turning the corner. Gross profit for non-tobacco sales has increased and refinery margins are higher. Elevated refinery margins should persist for a few more quarters at least. We have reduced our Convenience and Commercial segment earnings for Viva, but lifted refining profits.

Ampol’s 2Q25 trading update showed improving margin performance across the majority of its segments. Refinery margins in diesel have lifted globally and its convenience operations in Australia & NZ are seeing improving fuel margins. While conditions are good, the EBIT momentum is in line with our thinking.

We initiate coverage on Ampol at a time when convenience sites are executing well with upside from a better sales mix and more foodservice offerings. In the next two years the company should also experience a substantial lift in profitability in its fuels businesses as throughput recovers and capital projects are completed.