Lovisa’s AGM trading update revealed weakening sales trends and a slower pace of net new store openings. We expect to see a year of slower store openings, influenced by the CEO transition period being so drawn out. Increasing competition and promotional activity weighs on margins.

The ACCC has approved the merger between Sigma and Chemist Warehouse. We expect the issuance of new shares to Chemist Warehouse will not be until February 2025 at the earliest and could be in March 2025. For a brief period, the stock could have a float-adjusted market cap of $14 billion. By April 2025, the market will increasingly turn its attention to the fundamental earnings and valuation drivers. The most compelling feature is strong revenue growth of circa 10-12%, with more than half from store count growth. The greatest unknown is where sustainable margins settle.

Lovisa has enjoyed a relatively low level of competition. The company has a moat related to the breadth of its frequently refreshed and low-price product offering. How defensive is that moat?  A new entrant in Harli + Harpa, led by ex Lovisa CEO, Shane Fallscheer will launch shortly. Lovisa has derisked its Australian exposure, but its domestic market remains a key funding source for its global expansion aspirations. There are early signs of weakness in Australia and increasing competition will put downward pressure on the highly attractive margins. The global expansion is the key driver of growth for Lovisa but the domestic market still matters.

Premier Investments reported FY24 Retail EBIT down 9% to $326 million. Gross margins finished higher with a second-half increase of 94bp. Cost management during FY24 helped offset the operational leverage of lower sales. The delayed strategic review allows the board to focus on the Myer merger proposal. 

The proposed date for ACCC’s findings on the Chemist Warehouse-Sigma merger is 24 October 2024.  The timeline slipped with further details provided by Chemist Warehouse and Sigma. It is not a guaranteed approval given the combined entity will be a very large operator in the pharmacy market. While some see store divestments appeasing the ACCC, we are less convinced. The first issue listed by the ACCC is the vertical integration caused by the acquisition.

Harvey Norman reported FY24 EBITDA down 11% with a drop in Franchising and New Zealand earnings and increase in its property earnings. The company has lost market share in both Australia and New Zealand over the past five years and its EBITDA margin recovery is yet to emerge. We expect New Zealand to remain a headwind in FY25e but Australian earnings should rise slightly. The quality of the FY24 result was low with reduced lease amortisation supporting earnings.

Accent Group reported FY24 EBIT of $128 million, adjusted for impairment, down 1% against a 52-week comparable. The trading update of like-for-like sales of 3.5% was a slowdown on the 4.1% achieved in 2H24. A lower 2H24 gross margin, explained by an inventory write-down, was in contrast to the 136bp gross margin improvement in 1H24. Given positive trading momentum, structural gross margin improvement strategy and the exit of underperforming banners and sites we see Accent Group growing earnings by a 9.5% CAGR over the next 3 years.

The proposed merger between Chemist Warehouse and Sigma will create a business with close to $760 million of combined annual EBIT with growth of 12%-19% over the next four years. However, the first hurdle is ACCC approval which may be a drawn-out process. While there is an impressive growth profile, the prospects for rollout beyond Australia and New Zealand is still in its infancy. The upside case would see continued elevated like-for-like sales growth and a seamless integration of the Chemist Warehouse contract.

Nick Scali is a furniture retailer that has exhibited consistent growth over the long term. We see the store network growing to 153 over the next four years to FY27e, a compound annual growth rate of 9%. New stores will come in both existing markets and the newly entered UK market. The opportunistic, low-cost entry into the UK sets a base from which to expand the Nick Scali brand into the UK.

Lovisa has extended its CEO contract for Victor Herrero to May 2025. John Cheston will be appointed as successor to take Lovisa at the start of FY26e. Mr Cheston comes from Premier Investments as Managing Director of Smiggle, overseeing its expansion into foreign markets over the last decade. With the change to CEO, we lower our Lovisa store rollout forecast in FY25 by 50 stores largely effecting the probability of an accelerated China rollout.