Australian retail sales rose 0.9% in September 2024 year-on-year. This was a deceleration on the 4.0% growth in August. August benefited from Father’s Day timing and promotional activity, which took sales from September. Looking at the September quarter, retail sales were up 2.5% compared long-term trends of 4.9%. Pharmacy, recreational goods and furniture were the non-food categories in growth during September. We see consumers delaying purchases in anticipation of Black Friday deals which means a more subdued October as well.

Nick Scali is a furniture retailer that has exhibited consistent growth over the long term. We see the store network growing to 153 over the next four years to FY27e, a compound annual growth rate of 9%. New stores will come in both existing markets and the newly entered UK market. The opportunistic, low-cost entry into the UK sets a base from which to expand the Nick Scali brand into the UK.

Super Retail Group’s trading update provides divergent implications with sales improving slightly, but gross margins deteriorating a little in Feb-April 2024. Rebel has accelerated a little, while BCF slowed. The commentary on gross margins is a little softer. The company outlined the implications of its recent wage agreement, which will entrench higher cost growth for FY25e.

Premier Investments FY23 result revealed a slowdown in sales and gross margin pressure in the second-half. The company found sufficient flexibility in its cost base to soften the 2H23 EBIT decline to only 4%. For FY24e, we expect weaker sales, lower gross margins and more cost inflation.

Endeavour Group reported FY23 sales up 2% and EBIT up 11%. The debate is whether the company can cut costs sufficiently to ensure profit margins do not fall in FY24e. The company faces cost growth of 7% on our estimates and sales growth is more likely to be 4%. While a combination of gross margin gains in its Retail division and some cost savings should help, we expect modest margin compression. Another headwind in FY24e will be higher net interest costs.

Bapcor reported strong FY23 revenue growth of 10% with EBITDA rising 3% for the full year. In the second-half sales grew 8% with EBITDA down 2%. Risks to Bapcor are focused on the impact of higher wages, plus increasing rent and overheads. The cost out program announced in November 2022 will help to mitigate these cost pressures. Bapcor enters FY24e with an improved inventory position after reporting a strong cash realisation in FY23. The sales growth trajectory is likely to soften from here as same store sales start to normalise.

Premier Investments had a solid rise in 1H23 sales but retail EBIT margins fell by 303bp, largely due to a lower currency rate for product purchases. Peter Alexander had good sales growth despite a very high baseline. The brand has contributed more than two-thirds to the group’s earnings growth over the past three years and is the key share price driver in our view. The company is flagging store openings and offshore expansion for both Peter Alexander and Smiggle. Store openings should contribute quickly, but offshore expansion will be measured in our view.

Treasury Wines reported a mixed 1H23 result. Underlying sales were weak, but profit margins improved significantly. The Franks Family acquisition contributed almost two-thirds to its EBITS growth. The company needs to lift its marketing and promotional investment in 19 Crimes to stabilise revenue. Gross margin improvement was significant in 1H23 and reflects the acquisition as well as reduced supply chain costs. We expect COGS improvements to be more meaningful in FY24e as grape costs fall.

City Chic’s high inventory position has made investors nervous. We acknowledge the risk but feel that the combination of solid demand for fashion in its key markets, and a return to a net cash position is appealing. It won’t be a smooth ride for investors, but the company should emerge over the next 12 months with a stronger position in global plus-size fashion market and a net cash position.

Endeavour Group reported FY22 EBIT up 3%. Even though the operating environment is now normalising, we expect pressure on gross profit margins to keep a lid on earnings growth in FY23e. Retail gross margins are likely to fall in 1H23e and higher gaming taxes will detract from the earnings recovery in Hotels.