The ABS has stated that its Retail Trade series will cease from July 2025 and instead the ABS will use its Household Spending Indicator to measure consumer spending. This is a risk for all users of retail data given the short history for the replacement data series. Bank transaction data exhibits more volatility and we may no longer have a reliable measure of retail market sizes. We need more data, not less to help retailers, suppliers, landlords, regulators and investors all make more informed decisions and maximise productivity for the industry.

Super Retail Group’s trading update provides divergent implications with sales improving slightly, but gross margins deteriorating a little in Feb-April 2024. Rebel has accelerated a little, while BCF slowed. The commentary on gross margins is a little softer. The company outlined the implications of its recent wage agreement, which will entrench higher cost growth for FY25e.

Australian retail sales rose 1.3% in March 2024 (0.8% seasonally adjusted). Given the timing of Easter, judging the results is problematic. However, seasonally adjusted data and our own feedback reinforces the view that sales trends remain weak across March-April. Per capita retail volumes fell 2.3% in the March 2024 quarter. Additional category detail shows weakest underlying trends in electronics, furniture, recreational goods and clothing. We expect very weak trends to persist through to June 2024 with a mild pick up for the back-half of calendar 2024.

Endeavour Group reported normalised sales growth of 1.0% for 3Q24. The retailer’s challenge is a tough industry backdrop. We expect soft sales trends to continue as the liquor retail industry undergoes a normalisation of volume and pubs experience some trading down behaviour. Even so, sales trends should improve slightly in 4Q24e and FY25e for Endeavour.

Bapcor provided a trading update with detail on the sales growth for the nine months to 31 March 2024 and guided to FY24e proforma NPAT of $93-97 million. Sales trends for the nine months were mostly lower than the 1H24 sales trends. The fundamental debate remains the outlook for the cost saving program (Better Than Before). Management instability makes it difficult to see the cost savings being delivered anytime soon and the net benefits may be far smaller than the gross $100 million savings.

Wesfarmers held its annual strategy day and, as always, delivered a consistent message about its focus on long-term shareholder value creation.  The tone of Wesfarmers annual strategy presentation focused more on growth initiatives and highlighted the progress on productivity and technology investments. While a positive presentation, the detail is unlikely to change consensus earnings expectations and the share price remains very stretched.

Woolworths 3Q24 sales result was soft across the board. Will trends improve from here? We expect Woolworths relative performance to improve in each of its divisions in 4Q24e albeit the ongoing industry-wide slowdown will result in a very modest uplift. Woolworths weak growth relative to Coles is largely attributable to transitory factors. We expect 4Q24e comp growth of 1.2% for Woolworths and 2.5% for Coles. However, with less than 2% comparable sales growth, Woolworths will need cost savings to maintain earnings.

Coles reported 3Q24 comparable sales growth of 4.2% for its Supermarkets. It was a good quarter for Coles. However, we expect it is a peak in growth with some transitory factors and fading inflation leading us to forecast 2.5% comparable growth for 4Q24e. Liquor had a much weaker period and sales declines are likely to continue as the industry volumes reset lower and Coles unwinds some loss-leading sales.

We expect signs of slowing sales, which reflect weak volumes and decelerating inflation. For Coles, we forecast 3Q24e Supermarket comp sales growth of 4.3%. We estimate Woolworths Food comps to rise by 1.5% and for Endeavour Retail we forecast comp sales to increase by 0.7%. While the differential in growth rates will be of interest, the bigger concern for the retailers is the continued weakness in volumes. Inflation is set to slow from here and comp sales growth could be even weaker in 4Q24e, which is a challenge for the retailers given cost growth remains far higher.

Australian inflation stepped down further to 3.6% in the March 2024 quarter year on year. Our calculation of retail price inflation is at 2.0% for the quarter, flat on the prior quarter. Lower price inflation for retailer puts added pressure on driving volumes. While broader inflation is slowing, the pace of the slowdown indicates that rate cuts are more likely a 2025 event and risk is to the upside on the upcoming wage award decision for retailer wages.