Ampol’s EG acquisition has been approved by the ACCC on condition of divesting 41 sites. Even with this, the EG deal is compelling. The EG stores enable a faster rollout of U-GO sites and cost savings in buying and overheads. We see value creation from this deal with further synergy upside. Ampol is positioned for a very strong year of earnings given higher refining margins in FY26e. However, the more enduring upside will come from the EG acquisition.

Wesfarmers 2026 strategy day had familiar messages about driving growth and productivity. What we found new was the emphasis about online marketplace growth, higher returns in Health and the confidence about its lithium expansion plan. We are cautious about slowing sales in Bunnings over the next 12 months.

Treasury Wines investor day provided a clear message about prioritising its 10 most profitable brands and creating more accountability in how it deals with distributors and retailers. The direction is logical, but it also results in a challenging FY26e and FY27e. There is also uncertainty about its medium-term revenue base given 65% of its volume is in wines that are not considered “core” to the group. Balance sheet repair is a focus and gearing should return to its target range by FY28e. We see FY28e as a “rebound” year.

The key planks of Super Retail Group’s strategy are increasing both store count and store sizes, expanding the range of products and streamlining its operations and supply chain. The surprising element is the pace of store growth, which is well ahead of population growth and at-odds with likely migration towards online across its categories. The company will need to take market share to be successful and should do so.

The National Accounts for the March 2026 quarter paint a picture of slower household income growth, but consistent spending trends. Income growth of 5% matched broader consumer spending and retail spending trends. The consumer’s initial response to higher interest rates and petrol prices has been to save a bit less. Given savings are a healthy 6%-7% of income, we expect savings to delay the downturn in retail and see a trough in retail sales growth at close to 3% in the December 2026 quarter.

The RBNZ remains on hold while the RBA has already raised rates three times this year. New Zealand retail sales began recovering in the September quarter 2025 and the income backdrop remains good for NZ consumers despite the risk of higher inflation and interest rates. We forecast New Zealand retail sales growth to hold at 4.2% over FY27e, with 3.6% growth in at-home food & liquor and 4.6% in non-food retail. The retail sales cycle in New Zealand may be more uncertain in FY27e, but the long-dated impact of rate cuts is still a tailwind, along with improving net migration and employment growth. Key retailers that have earnings upside in NZ are Ampol, Woolworths and Harvey Norman. To a lesser extent, JB Hi-Fi and Nick Scali will see upside to earnings but both have a very small store network.

Endeavour’s strategy unveil focused very much on retail fundamentals and lacked quantifiable detail.  The emphasis on sales growth is sensible given Endeavour Retail has lost 5% of market share over five years. There is upside in selling data to suppliers and better buying margins too. The $300 million cost savings will be partly offset by cost inflation. Management incentives attached to the strategy will be crucial. Previous iterations focus on sales, EBIT and working capital, along with ROFE and EPS. We expect the same focus going forward. We forecast capex to hover near $500 million as more is spent on hotels, which is consistent with a lower dividend payout ratio.

Australian retail sales grew 4.7% in April 2026. Given the timing of Easter, a combined March-April read is more relevant, which shows growth of 5.2%. This is still above long-term trends, and stronger in non-food and dining out. Despite rate hikes and a petrol price spike, consumers are still happy to spend.

GyG’s decision to exit the US is sooner than expected but a logical step given weak sales productivity in that market. We lift our EPS forecasts by 4% in FY26e and 37% in FY27e. As an Australian store rollout and margin expansion proposition, GyG’s prospects look good. The company’s affirmation of $85 million in Australian EBITDA suggests an EBITDA margin of 6.2% for FY26e. This is a rise of 60bp and we see 40-60bp annual margin expansion over the next three years.

Endeavour Group will hold a strategy day on 27 May 2026. While a good opportunity to hear about its focus and meet new management, we expect the strategic pillars to be about improving its price position in Dan Murphy’s and cutting costs, both largely known topics. We wonder about the future of Pinnacle Drinks and see upside from a shift in range towards RTDs. Hotels refurbishments will be a feature with a higher frequency needed. We think the strategy day is unlikely to reveal much new, and puts the focus on a) liquor industry demand growth and b) the execution of its strategy.