We have pulled together a chart pack of market share across retail segments. The key insights we draw from it are:

• Major supermarket chains both taking share, which is rare: Coles and Woolworths combined market share rose 60bps in FY26. Typically market share is flat. Tobacco headwind has hurt independent supermarkets and Aldi has been more focused on profitability. The majors share gains likely to be smaller in FY27e.
• Online driving share gains: Online industry sales growth of 14% in FY26 and ASX-listed retailers delivered 17%. Large retailers are leveraging their traffic to grow marketplace sales.
• Value focused offerings winning over premium: In both department stores and apparel retailing, consumers gravitated to value focused offerings. In clothing, Uniqlo and Glassons have taken share 35bps of share collectively, whilst Kmart has taken 58bps of share while David Jones and Myer together lost 43bps.
• Less reliable ABS data: Our work on market share is designed to provide insight about market structure and the relative performance. ABS retail sales data releases have become less transparent and the data source is less reliable. We have combined datasets where possible to provide the most accurate view on market share.

Australian retail sales rose 4.7% year-on-year for December 2025. This was a solid end to the year and the December quarter showed growth of 5.8%, which was above trend. It is important to call out the strength of non-food, which was 7.1% across the December quarter, an unusually strong result. We believe we have just seen the peak in retail sales growth, with a gradual slowdown over 2026 likely.

Australian retail sales rose 6.9% year-on-year in November 2025 according to ABS data. The shift of ABS data source does makes us cautious about the magnitude of the reported strength in sales. Even so, it does suggest another strong month in non-food. Household goods such as furniture, electronics and hardware, had the strongest growth up 10.6%. At-home food and liquor was weakest at 3.6% growth.

The ABS has stated that its Retail Trade series will cease from July 2025 and instead the ABS will use its Household Spending Indicator to measure consumer spending. This is a risk for all users of retail data given the short history for the replacement data series. Bank transaction data exhibits more volatility and we may no longer have a reliable measure of retail market sizes. We need more data, not less to help retailers, suppliers, landlords, regulators and investors all make more informed decisions and maximise productivity for the industry.