Australian retail sales rose 4.0% in December 2024, with some notable outliers across segments. Electronics was up 11%, furniture up 8% and pharmacy up 7%. On the other hand, department stores, supermarkets, liquor and recreational goods were all very soft. Some of the shifts reflect the baseline with December compound annual growth rates actually slower than November for all categories other than hardware and liquor.

Australian retail sales rose 4.1% in November 2024. In non-food retail, sales were up 4.0%, while the CAGR growth over five years was 7.3%. November benefited from a bigger Black Friday event but also from warmer, drier weather. Supermarkets, liquor, fashion and cafes/restaurants all had much stronger growth. The sales trends have improved in recent months, which may be a little stronger than true trends because of favourable weather and the heavier discounts enticing shoppers. We expect some softness in the March 2025 quarter.

Australian retailers have had a good Christmas. Even with a bigger Black Friday, consumers were in the mood to spend at Christmas and a late surge in sales is likely to lead to good growth. Sales trends are likely to be at least 1% better than the September quarter. In addition to good sales, few retailers are complaining about margins. While sales growth has been good, margins are already high and cost growth is elevated.

Australian retail sales rose 3.8% year-on-year in October 2024. It was a strong month for non-food retail up 5.1%, which is above long-term trends. It is uncommon for non-food to outperform, but the combination of good household income growth and a softer September has brought out shoppers. Pharmacy, cosmetics, recreational goods and online were the strongest growing categories. Our feedback on Black Friday sales suggests November will show solid growth too. We may see some weakness in December as promotional fatigue sets in.

Australian retail sales rose 0.9% in September 2024 year-on-year. This was a deceleration on the 4.0% growth in August. August benefited from Father’s Day timing and promotional activity, which took sales from September. Looking at the September quarter, retail sales were up 2.5% compared long-term trends of 4.9%. Pharmacy, recreational goods and furniture were the non-food categories in growth during September. We see consumers delaying purchases in anticipation of Black Friday deals which means a more subdued October as well.

Australian retail sales rose 4.0% in August 2024 year-on-year. This was an acceleration on the 2.6% growth in July with online outperforming at 12.0% growth. Dining-out slowed, but supermarkets were strong.  Afterpay Day, Father’s Day and better weather supported liquor, recreational goods and clothing spend. Pharmacy continues its strong sales growth. We expect sales growth to be softer in the next two months ahead of Black Friday promotions in November.

Australian retail sales rose 2.6% in July 2024 year-on-year. While overall sales trends remain weak, the standout was online, which was up 14.3% with strength in both food and non-food online. Amazon’s Prime Day has had spillover effects across the market. Hardware, Liquor and Takeaway Food were in decline in July. Pharmacy and furniture had good sales growth. We expect a gradual improvement in sales growth over the next six months led by non-food retail categories.

Australian retail sales rose 2.1% year-on-year in May 2024, which is the best underlying rate of growth since November 2023. The glass half-full would suggest we may be past the trough for retail. The glass half-empty is that the rate of growth is still very weak and indicative of per capita declines in retail volumes. We do think we are now past the trough in volumes, but we don’t expect a swift recovery in retail spending.

Australian retail sales rose 1.2% in April 2024. To adjust for the noise of the timing of Easter we also look at the combined March-April results which shows sales growth of only 1.3%. Department stores and fashion have had the most notable slowdown over the Easter trading period. Supermarket sales are also soft considering data suggests higher inflation in March-April. We forecast subdued retail sales growth trends to continue to June 2024, with a mild pick up for the back-half of calendar 2024.