Australian retail has had a challenging 12 months. We expect we are past the worst for this sales cycle with a gradual improvement in growth over the next 12 months. We forecast retail sales growth of 2.9% in FY25e, up from 1.8% in FY24e. The sectors likely to see the strongest recovery are household goods, supermarkets and online. Some categories are still vulnerable to a correction in volumes such as liquor, cafes & restaurants and fashion. While there is an upswing, it will be mild and leave growth rates below trend for the next three years in our view given the low household savings rate and decelerating population growth.

Australia’s national accounts reveals that income growth remains strong and consumers are spending more money outside of retail. For the March 2024 quarter, household income rose 5.1% and total consumer spending was up 5.9%, whereas retail spending only rose 2.5%. Households are saving very little of their income, a reflection of stored up savings from the past four years, but also a reminder that consumers will be more value conscious. We expect similar trends to constrain a retail recovery in FY25e as households allocate spending elsewhere and lower retail price inflation dampens overall revenue.

The Australian Federal Budget is positive for retail given income tax cuts. However, there are very few other initiatives that shift the outlook for consumer spending. Power price relief helps, but it is at the margin. The tax cuts add 1.6% to household income in FY25e. However, evidence from past tax cuts shows it takes time for them to benefit spending. Treasury forecasts a 1% acceleration in consumer spending for FY25e compared with FY24e. We take the same view on retail spending and expect a 1% improvement in growth for FY25e, a modest upswing. We are near the low point of the retail cycle and tax cuts will help lift growth. Even so, sales growth is likely to be slower than cost growth.

We have updated our retail sales outlook, with modestly higher forecasts for 2024. We forecast 2.7% growth (up from 2.5% previously). We have lifted our non-food forecasts, but lowered food & liquor forecasts. The prevailing sales trends are very soft but should improve in the back-half of calendar 2024 as income tax cuts flow through. We only see a modest pick up because lower retail price inflation will constrain overall sales growth in FY25e.

Income tax cuts that come into effect from 1 July 2024 are worth $20 billion over the next fiscal year. While a big number on the surface, we feel the figure needs context given other factors such as changes in employment, living costs and savings could offset some of the benefit. Isolating the tax cuts, we estimate about $5 billion could make its way into retail. All else equal, this is a 1.1% boost to retail sales growth for FY25e. However, a 2.5% drop in hours worked, 1.4% rise in either the unemployment, living costs or the savings rate are equivalent to $20 billion and could neutralise the benefit to retail from tax cuts.