Australian retail sales rose 0.9% in September 2024 year-on-year. This was a deceleration on the 4.0% growth in August. August benefited from Father’s Day timing and promotional activity, which took sales from September. Looking at the September quarter, retail sales were up 2.5% compared long-term trends of 4.9%. Pharmacy, recreational goods and furniture were the non-food categories in growth during September. We see consumers delaying purchases in anticipation of Black Friday deals which means a more subdued October as well.

Australian retail sales rose 4.0% in August 2024 year-on-year. This was an acceleration on the 2.6% growth in July with online outperforming at 12.0% growth. Dining-out slowed, but supermarkets were strong.  Afterpay Day, Father’s Day and better weather supported liquor, recreational goods and clothing spend. Pharmacy continues its strong sales growth. We expect sales growth to be softer in the next two months ahead of Black Friday promotions in November.

Australia’s national accounts showed that retail continued to miss out on spending growth in the June 2024 quarter. Total consumer spending rose 5.2%, while retail spending only increased by 1.8%. Households have continued to use some of their stored-up savings to maintain spending habits. The good news for retail is the reset, or mean reversion lower of retail spending, has now largely played out. We expect improved income growth and a better share of wallet for retail to result in slightly stronger retail sales growth in FY25e.

Australian retail sales rose 2.6% in July 2024 year-on-year. While overall sales trends remain weak, the standout was online, which was up 14.3% with strength in both food and non-food online. Amazon’s Prime Day has had spillover effects across the market. Hardware, Liquor and Takeaway Food were in decline in July. Pharmacy and furniture had good sales growth. We expect a gradual improvement in sales growth over the next six months led by non-food retail categories.

Australian retail sales rose 2.1% year-on-year in May 2024, which is the best underlying rate of growth since November 2023. The glass half-full would suggest we may be past the trough for retail. The glass half-empty is that the rate of growth is still very weak and indicative of per capita declines in retail volumes. We do think we are now past the trough in volumes, but we don’t expect a swift recovery in retail spending.

Australian retail sales rose 1.2% in April 2024. To adjust for the noise of the timing of Easter we also look at the combined March-April results which shows sales growth of only 1.3%. Department stores and fashion have had the most notable slowdown over the Easter trading period. Supermarket sales are also soft considering data suggests higher inflation in March-April. We forecast subdued retail sales growth trends to continue to June 2024, with a mild pick up for the back-half of calendar 2024.

The ABS has stated that its Retail Trade series will cease from July 2025 and instead the ABS will use its Household Spending Indicator to measure consumer spending. This is a risk for all users of retail data given the short history for the replacement data series. Bank transaction data exhibits more volatility and we may no longer have a reliable measure of retail market sizes. We need more data, not less to help retailers, suppliers, landlords, regulators and investors all make more informed decisions and maximise productivity for the industry.

Australian retail sales rose by 1.6% year on year in February 2024, adjusted for the leap-year effect. Sales trends are very weak, given population and price are still positive contributors to retail. As a silver lining, retail is now almost back to pre COVID-19 underlying sales trends. Perhaps the mean-reversion is done? The weakest categories in February were furniture, electronics and footwear. Pharmacy, cosmetics and apparel did well. We expect retail sales growth to continue to hover around 0%-2% over the next few months.

Income tax cuts that come into effect from 1 July 2024 are worth $20 billion over the next fiscal year. While a big number on the surface, we feel the figure needs context given other factors such as changes in employment, living costs and savings could offset some of the benefit. Isolating the tax cuts, we estimate about $5 billion could make its way into retail. All else equal, this is a 1.1% boost to retail sales growth for FY25e. However, a 2.5% drop in hours worked, 1.4% rise in either the unemployment, living costs or the savings rate are equivalent to $20 billion and could neutralise the benefit to retail from tax cuts.