Coles Group reported 1Q23 sales growth of 1.3%. This is a low rate of growth, but an aberration compared with likely growth over the remainder of FY23e. The first quarter was lapping lockdowns. We expect Coles Supermarket comp sales growth to recover to 5.9% in 2Q23e and Liquor should recover to be almost flat. All of the sales growth over coming quarters will be price inflation with some modest volume declines.

Australian supermarket industry sales only rose 3% in July 2022. The slowdown is not a reflection of customers retaliating to higher prices, its merely the normalisation from lockdowns last year. In this report, we analyse the likely normalisation path in sales. Coles is likely to grow faster than Woolworths in the September quarter. However, the real winner is Metcash which is holding onto the vast majority of its customer gains. Since 2018, the fundamental shift from the majors to reduce promotions and open fewer stores has provided a better operating environment for Metcash.

Australian retail sales growth of 8.2% for March 2022 year on year may be as good as it gets. The three-year cumulative growth is as strong as the dizzy heights seen back in November 2021, which proves once again, when COVID-19 cases drop, consumers clearly want to spend. The reality is that higher inflation and interest rates will take the edge off retail spending. However, the moderation in growth is likely to be gradual over the next 18 months as retail sales also benefits from some inflation.

Coles had stronger 3Q22 sales growth largely driven by higher food inflation. While market views vary, it is clear that inflation is adding to revenue growth with more to come over the remainder of 2022. Even with better sales growth, Coles is losing share, driven by fewer store openings. The company may be rational in shutting stores, but the rest of the market is not following. Coles Liquor comparable sales growth was a highlight, comfortably outstripping Endeavour. However, the business has a long way to go to lift sales productivity to a level anywhere near Endeavour.

Metcash has stabilised its food market share over the past two years and Hardware sales and earnings are likely to grow meaningfully. Metcash is perceived as a COVID-19 beneficiary and therefore has struggled to re-rate in recent months. However, our analysis suggests that its market share in Supermarkets is likely stabilised for more fundamental reasons. Competitors are opening fewer stores, IGAs are no longer shutting stores and the risk of contract losses is now in the rear vision mirror. In the hardware industry, Metcash is likely to gain share given its 60% skew to trade and continued rollout of Total Tools stores.