We have produced a chart pack of retailer performance vs market. This market share report provides two insights – 1) Performance of key ASX-listed retailers compared with market growth. 2) Market structure and individual retailer performance over time. The most interesting perspective about the data in the near-term is the recent sales performance for supermarkets, hardware, liquor, and electronics. The data includes actual six-monthly growth in industry sales to end of December 2023.

Harvey Norman has provided an AGM update that reflects the strength of the consumer in many of its markets. Australian comparable sales rose 8.8% and the three-year CAGR is 8.0%. Slovenia and Ireland are also very strong. Given good sales results, we expect profit margins to only fall slightly in FY23e. If Harvey Norman can reduce its inventory levels in an orderly manner, the margin compression could be less than feared.