Australian retail sales rose 1.2% in April 2024. To adjust for the noise of the timing of Easter we also look at the combined March-April results which shows sales growth of only 1.3%. Department stores and fashion have had the most notable slowdown over the Easter trading period. Supermarket sales are also soft considering data suggests higher inflation in March-April. We forecast subdued retail sales growth trends to continue to June 2024, with a mild pick up for the back-half of calendar 2024.

Premier Investments FY23 result revealed a slowdown in sales and gross margin pressure in the second-half. The company found sufficient flexibility in its cost base to soften the 2H23 EBIT decline to only 4%. For FY24e, we expect weaker sales, lower gross margins and more cost inflation.

Premier Investments has provided a trading update that reveals that 2H23 sales rose 1.3% and Retail EBIT fell 2.2%. In light of a weaker backdrop it is a good result. The company has also announced a strategic review that could result in separation of Peter Alexander and Smiggle and release value in its franking credit balance.

City Chic’s sales run-rate stepped down materially in 2H23e with sales for the half likely to be $128-$132 million, down 29% on the pcp. Elevated discounting is the primary driver. The quality of inventory does also worry us. The company’s guidance that gross margins are down 18 percentage points, suggests that almost two-thirds of its sales drop is a function of lower realised prices. We expect weak sales to continue in 1H24e as discounting continues. Sales should recover in 2H24e onwards. However, the sales base is likely to settle around $316 million in FY25e, far below aspirations of $400 million only six months ago

Premier Investments had a solid rise in 1H23 sales but retail EBIT margins fell by 303bp, largely due to a lower currency rate for product purchases. Peter Alexander had good sales growth despite a very high baseline. The brand has contributed more than two-thirds to the group’s earnings growth over the past three years and is the key share price driver in our view. The company is flagging store openings and offshore expansion for both Peter Alexander and Smiggle. Store openings should contribute quickly, but offshore expansion will be measured in our view.

City Chic’s 2022 AGM trading update highlighted a normalisation in sales and squeeze in profit margins for FY23e. We expect FY23e EBITDA pre AASB-16 to fall to $19 million. While a low point, profitability should recover as the industry-wide inventory position normalises over the next year. We have structurally dropped our sales forecasts given Avenue looks to be resetting sales lower like many online businesses. We expect EBITDA margins to trough at 5.6% this year and recover to 11.8% by FY25e.

City Chic reported FY22 EBITDA of $47 million (pre AASB-16), up 11%. The result was characterised by very strong revenue growth, but margin dilution from lower margin acquisitions and higher fulfillment costs.  We expect sales growth to slow in FY23e to 6% as online demand normalises globally. We see further downside in gross margins given higher fulfillment costs seen in 2H22. We forecast FY23e sales of $392 million and EBITDA of $50 million. We have lifted our EBITDA forecast slightly from $49 million previously.

City Chic provided a trading update about sales and EBITDA for 2H22e. Sales growth is 25% so far in 2H22e, which is 4% below our estimate. The lower than forecast sales were more pronounced in the Americas business. We expect a small pick-up in sales growth for the remainder of the half with 28% growth forecast for 2H22e. The company expects 2H22e EBITDA to be slightly ahead of 1H22. We forecast 2H22e EBITDA of $23.7 million, compared with $23.5 million in 1H22.

Premier Investments 1H22 result was well flagged. The more interesting perspectives are that its gross margin remains high and rents are resetting as a lower share of sales. Sales trends so far in 2H22e are solid, which should provide EBIT growth in the half. The major share price driver for Premier from here is likely to be the ways it utilises its net cash position.

City Chic has a strong sales growth outlook but profit margins are likely to remain near current levels. Premier has a modest sales growth outlook from here and profit margins may fall. However, we see optionality given the company’s balance sheet. Premier may accelerate Peter Alexander store rollout, acquire a controlling stake in Myer or acquire a fashion business in youth apparel or accessories.