Coles reported underlying EBIT up 5.7% for FY24 on a 52-week basis. EBIT growth in Supermarkets was much stronger in the second-half but Liquor earnings fell significantly. Coles had a step-down in sales trends in 2H24 and these are likely to continue. The gross margin gains from lower stock loss in FY25e should underpin a flat EPS year with better EPS growth in FY26e as the benefits of the Witron and Ocado capex projects comes to fruition.

Woolworths 1H24 EBIT growth of 3% revealed a stark contrast amongst its divisions, with Australian Food EBIT up 10%, but NZ earnings down 41% and Big W down 60%. The challenge for the company is that its Australian Food sales are slowing rapidly. We also expect the outsized contribution from eCommerce and Digital & Data to moderate. The concern is lower food inflation crimping Food segment margins and a lower profit margin for Big W. With a change of CEO and weaker food inflation outlook, we expect the earnings outlook on the company to be moderated.