Nick Scali’s AGM trading update revealed improving written sales order trends but highlighted the disconnect to recorded sales with 1H25e revenue for ANZ guided down 3%. Sea freight rate exposure has dented gross margins in the near term pushing 1H25e ANZ EBIT margins down to FY19 levels. The UK is set to reach profitability in 2H26e and saw gross margin improvement as new product is introduced to stores.

JB Hi-Fi reported FY24 EBIT down 16%. Sales momentum and margins were encouraging in the second-half and the company has consistently gained market share over the past five years. We expect another year of softening margins, albeit overall EPS should be up slightly in FY25e. While JB Hi-Fi is clearly a well-run business, we expect future earnings growth is likely to be low single-digit at best.

Nick Scali reported an EBIT result of $130 million for FY24, down 16%. Gross margin of 65.5% for the group and 66.0% the Australia and New Zealand (ANZ) division was a standout and record. For FY25e we expect to see modest store openings, an improvement in per store sales growth momentum from ANZ and moderate cost growth. A catalyst to the upside would be a lower sea freight rate environment and progress in the UK.

Australian retail sales for November rose 2.1%. Black Friday promotions drove improvements particularly in electronics, department stores and furniture. Online food and non-food were both positive, with online food strength growing double-digits. While there are concerns about a pull forward of sales into November, our feedback suggests December sales held up reasonably well.

Australian retail sales for October 2023 rose 1.3%. Category variability continued with dining out resilient and weakness in furniture, electronics and recreational goods. Supermarkets slowed as fresh deflation dented sales. The expectation of Black Friday sales in November likely gave consumers a pause during October in some discretionary categories. Our feedback on November sales and Black Friday have been stronger.

Coles reported underlying EBIT down 5% for 2H23 in its Supermarket division. The drop in profit margins was a function of both gross margin pressure from rising theft and higher operating cost growth. Unfortunately for the company, these trends will persist into FY24e leading to a drop in EBIT margins. FY24e should be a trough in earnings. However, margin expansion is largely contingent on its capex projects delivering a return and it may take 2-3 years to prove success on this front.

Premier Investments has provided a trading update that reveals that 2H23 sales rose 1.3% and Retail EBIT fell 2.2%. In light of a weaker backdrop it is a good result. The company has also announced a strategic review that could result in separation of Peter Alexander and Smiggle and release value in its franking credit balance.

Super Retail Group reported FY23 EBIT growth of 10%. For the second-half EBIT dropped by 4%. Sales trends have held up well so far and the company has reduced its inventory. However, conditions are likely to be more challenging over the next year. As a result, profit margins will fall. The company will also have rising overheads and costs associated with its loyalty program in FY24e.

JB Hi-Fi may have reported a solid FY23 result, but the second-half provides an indication of the challenges ahead. Its 2H23 sales fell 0.5% and EBIT was down 23%. We expect sales to drop 3.0% in FY24e with EBIT down 26%. The risk to gross margins is the key unknown from here in our view. Even though JB Hi-Fi’s inventory is clean, there is elevated inventory with some suppliers and retailers. We expect EBIT margins to revert to FY19 levels by FY25e. The prospects for capital management look slim given higher working capital and capex.

A successful retailer has the right product, at the right price, at the right time. However, retailers regularly find themselves with the wrong inventory position. In Issue 6 of The Retail Mosaic, we assess the metrics used to measure inventory, the most useful red flags and the margin pain a retail with too much inventory may endure. A retailer with excess inventory can quickly sink into financial losses, but the impact usually lasts no more than 12 months. While some Australian retailers have excess inventory, the problems are being cleared quickly and inventory positions are likely to be more balanced in 2024.